Alabama senior running back Jam Miller missed the Crimson Tide’s first four games of the season with a dislocated collarbone he suffered in the team’s final scrimmage of fall camp. After finally returning and jolting Alabama’s lifeless run game, Miller was lost to a concussion in the second half of the Tide’s Week 7 win over No. 14 Missouri.
Now, after a week of uncertainty, Miller is expected to return on Saturday night when Alabama hosts No. 11 Tennessee at Bryant-Denny Stadium. He was listed as probable in the SEC’s midweek availability report, and that’s massive news for offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb.
Alabama still hasn’t found a suitable No. 2 running back behind Jam Miller
Even with two and a half games of Miller, Alabama still ranks 127th in the country in rushing success rate at 35.0 percent. The Tide have a bevy of backs who vied to replace Miller through the first four weeks, and though redshirt freshman Kevin Riley ultimately rose to the top of the depth chart, he has still posted just a 30 percent rushing success rate and generated -0.21 EPA/carry. He ranks 255th of 277 eligible running backs by EPA/carry, while Miller slots in at 143rd.
In the absence of a run game, Grubb has put more responsibility on the shoulders of redshirt junior quarterback Ty Simpson. Simpson has been asked to supplement the run game as a scrambler, and with a steady diet of screens, which are averaging 8.4 yards per attempt this season.
However, against SEC competition, the reliance on the first-time starting quarterback is taking its toll. In hope of creating big plays outside of structure, the accurate passer who is best as a decisive rhythm thrower has taken to holding onto the ball and buying time out of the pocket. After taking four sacks through the first four weeks of the season with a 10 percent pressure-to-sack rate, he has been sacked four times in each of the past two games, with his pressure-to-sack rate skyrocketing to 32 percent.
Alabama has enough offensive talent to overcome the negative plays that Simpson has begun to inflict on his own offense. However, without a run game, those issues will be exacerbated, particularly against Tennessee.
The Volunteers lost James Pearce Jr. to the first round of the NFL Draft and shed plenty of talent from last year’s defensive line. But, they’ve effectively reloaded and lead the country in sacks per game at 4.2. Joshua Josephs leads the team with 19 quarterback pressures and is one of four Tennessee defensive linemen with at least 10 pressures on the season.
Without the threat of a run game, Josephs and the rest of the Vols’ defense could pin its ears back to rush Ty Simpson. However, if Miller is able to go, he’ll provide a strong enough counterpunch to stall their momentum and keep Simpson out of obvious passing downs.
Alabama’s run game is never going to be a strength of the team, but with Miller healthy, it’s not a major exploitable weakness, and that’s enough for Simpson and the Tide’s embarrassment of riches at wide receiver to take over games.