How long Kalen DeBoer will be the head coach at Alabama is a topic of debate both inside and outside of Tuscaloosa.
DeBoer has gone 20-8 in two seasons since replacing the legendary Nick Saban, and led the Crimson Tide to an 11-win season and a College Football Playoff berth in 2025. But it was far from as smooth as that sounds.
Rumors swirled late in the year connecting DeBoer to vacancies at both Penn State and Michigan, with many questioning if the second-year Tide head coach was truly happy in Tuscaloosa or if the expectations and pressure that come with the job were already weighing him down.
Who knows what would have happened if Alabama didn't stage a 17-point comeback in the opening round of the College Football Playoff against Oklahoma, but it did. An embarrassing loss in the Rose Bowl made that performance feel like a distant memory, and any talks of a potential contract extension for DeBoer have quieted down considerably.
DeBoer's third season as the Alabama head coach in 2026 is a critical one. It could set the stage for the future of the program and for him.
But there remains little confidence around the country that DeBoer will be at Alabama for the long haul. In a recent article put together by Ralph Russo of The Athletic, he projected the head coach of every Power Four program in 2030. A lot can change in five years, and Russo projects a lot of job changes across the country.
Russo doesn't say when it will happen, but he projects DeBoer to not make it to what would be his seventh season as the Alabama head coach. Instead, he projects DeBoer to be at USC in 2030, replacing Lincoln Riley.
For Alabama, he projects the Crimson Tide to walk into Gainesville and poach Jon Sumrall.
Kalen DeBoer to USC and Jon Sumrall to Alabama by 2030 in Athletic predictions
Russo notes that this is all projection and not coming from any inside information. But it isn't hard to connect the dots that would lead DeBoer to USC, whether he's fired by Alabama or if he leaves on his own accord.
USC's Athletic Director is Jen Cohen, who hired DeBoer when she was the AD at Washington. That proved to be a successful move by her, with DeBoer leading the Huskies to the National Championship Game in his second season on the job before leaving for Alabama.
The Trojans could represent a better fit both culturally and stylistically for DeBoer if he decides to pursue an off-ramp or a bounce-back.
If Sumrall is Alabama's head coach in 2030, it would have to mean he had quick success at Florida. Sumrall will head into his first season as the Gators' head coach this season after a successful run at both Tulane and Troy.
Poaching a successful head coach away from Florida would be a power move by Greg Byrne or whoever the AD is at Alabama by then.
If DeBoer isn't the head coach four years from now, there would be a tremendous amount of pressure to get this hire correct.
This was just an exercise in fun by Russo, but perhaps not all that far-fetched.