In the 42-game history, Kentucky has beaten the Alabama Crimson Tide twice, and only once since the 1922 season. Both losses were road games for the Tide, the most recent in 1997. Another bit of Kentucky history goes back to the late 1940s and the early 1950s. Take away J.J. Tigert's two seasons in 1915 and 1916, and Paul Bryant is Kentucky's winningest coach. The Bear won 71% of his games as the Wildcats' head coach. Such football success at a basketball school is exceptional.
In an earlier post about Alabama's Week 2, I hoped that the Crimson Tide would play like a Top 10 team against the Wildcats. Doing so would match the calculations of three computer models that rated the Tide as a Top 10 team.
While I am very confident that Alabama will beat Kentucky in Lexington, I expect the margin to be no more than 10 points. Every season, many teams leap forward between their first and second games. That should happen for the Crimson Tide and the Wildcats. Alabama can improve in Week 2 and still not win pretty in Lexington.
Kentucky has two advantages against Alabama
Alabama's improvement is likely, but two factors should benefit the Wildcats. Alabama will have no trepidation about playing in Lexington, but SEC road games are harder to win. The other factor is that Alabama has far less than a complete understanding of the Cats, offensively and defensively. The Wildcats have a new head coach, former Oregon OC Will Stein. The Cats also have four new assistants, including Offensive Coordinator Joe Sloan and Defensive Coordinator Jay Bateman.
Bateman's defensive style is aggressive and unpredictable. How Alabama's offensive line and Keelon Russell respond will be interesting. Joe Sloan does not have the freedom Stein has given Bateman. But Sloan has SEC experience, and together with Stein, some offensive tweaks could mean that Kane Wommack cannot just prepare for what Oregon did last season.
The Wildcats cannot physically match Alabama at every position, but the Cats can use surprise as a weapon. If the Cats pull off several surprises, Alabama's winning margin may disappoint. Winning while showing progress and little to no regression would be sufficient against Kentucky. And no serious injuries, of course.
For the Crimson Tide, Week 2 and Week 3 can be progress and tune-up games, before the schedule gets more serious and more difficult in Week 4 against South Carolina.
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