After a terrific sophomore season, Alabama guard Labaron Philon looked like a lock to be selected in the lottery of the NBA Draft. But with just three days to go until the draft gets started on Tuesday, Philon's outlook has changed.
It's a deep class of guards this year, and Philon's performance at the NBA Combine in Chicago didn't allow him to stand out above the pack. In recent mocks, he's slipped more and more.
These are all just projections, and Philon certainly has a wide range of possibilities. It's difficult to know for sure which teams covet which guards. Philon's ability to create for himself, snake his way through ball-screens, and his gigantic leap in three-point shooting as a sophomore are all valuable traits that NBA teams will covet.
He has a wide range of possibilities, with most believing the draft probably starts for him around pick No. 10 with the Milwaukee Bucks, a team he has had a private workout with in the pre-draft process. That's the high end of his projection.
The low end has frequently been, at least as of late, No. 19 to the Toronto Raptors. But in Isaac Trotter's latest mock draft update, Philon slipped all the way to No. 21 to the Detroit Pistons, with the potential to slip even further, according to Trotter's narrative.
Labaron Philon projected at No. 21 to the Detroit Pistons in CBS' latest NBA mock draft
The Pistons would be an intriguing fit for Philon alongside Cade Cunningham, giving Detroit a much-needed secondary creator and a player who can knock down three-pointers at a high clip. Philon raised his three-point percentage to 39.9% in his second season with the Crimson Tide.
More concerning than that, however, is the possibility of him falling even further based on Trotter's opinion of Detroit's pick.
"This is a choice between Philon or Stanford's Ebuka Okorie. I lean Philon, although it's a lot closer than one might initially think," Trotter writes.
21 to the Pistons is the last guard spot selected in Trotter's mock draft until he has Okorie go No. 26 to the Denver Nuggets. So if that pick does genuinely come down to Philon or Okorie and the Pistons take the Stanford guard instead, Philon could drop all the way toward the end of the first round.
That would be disappointing for a player who did everything right. He exited the draft process last year as a late first round/early second round projection, came back to school, and totally dominated. He worked on the pieces of his game he needed to improve, and should have boosted his stock into the lottery range.
The ultimate depth of this class at Philon's position is just a stroke of bad luck.
Philon's status as a first-rounder is obvious based on his invite to the draft's green room Tuesday night, but if he has to wait until the 20s to hear his name called, it'll be a long night for him and his family and friends.
That could ultimately pay off for him, though, as landing in Detroit or Denver would put him in better situations with better organizations than some of the other options in the lottery.
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