There can be no looking ahead the Alabama Basketball team. Mississippi State is a good team. The recent recortd bwtween the Bulldogs and the Alabama Crimson Tide might be misleading. Mississippi State coach, Chris Jans has never beaten Alabama. The Crimson Tide has won straight games against the Bulldogs. Alabama won 88-84 in Starkville in January, with Bama shooting a scorching 48.4% from outside the arc. Had Chris Youngblood not made seven threes in the game, the Bulldogs would have won.
State has been up and down since mid-January, with five wins and seven losses. Their bright spots have been two wins over Ole Miss and a 16-point win over Texas A&M a week ago. The brightest spot in losses for the Bulldogs came from Josh Hubbard scoring 38 points on Alabama. Hubbard is not expected to have another 'career game' in Tuscaloosa.
If Jackson, MS publication, the Clarion Ledger is correct, the Bulldogs will lose again on Tuesday. Their prediction is an 88-75 Alabama Crimson Tide win.
Picking Alabama Basketball or the Vols?
Let's do what the Alabama team cannot do and look ahead to Saturday's game in Knoxville. ESPN Analytics gives Alabama a 33.5% probability of winning. The most optimistic computer model score I have seen is a three-point loss for the Crimson Tide.
There are good reasons for picking the Vols. According to Ken Pomeroy, Tennessee is college basketball's best defensive team. On Saturday, the Vols got an eight-point road win over Texas A&M. The Vols' leading scorer, Chaz Lanier had been inconsistent for weeks. In Tennessee's Feb. 11 loss to Kentucky, Lanier scored 10 points and missed all seven of his three-point attempts. In the two Tennessee games since Lanier has made 10-of-18 threes and scored 51 points.
There is also Alabama's history in Knoxville. The overall record is 24-48, with just five wins in Thompson-Boling over the last 20 seasons. With a Big Orange crowd behind them, the Vols' tough defense can become stifling.
There are counter reasons to why Alabama can win in Knoxville. Bama's tempo can wear down the Vols, especially their bigs. The Crimson Tide cannot let turnovers damage the pace advantage, but if Mark Sears and one or two other guys are nailing threes, Alabama's scoring output the Vols cannot match. The game will be a fierce battle and possibly not having Derrion Reid is a concern. ESPN and the other models are likely correct, but my hunch is Alabama playing its best game is a better team than the Vols playing their best game.
For an outside opinion not seen through 'Crimson' lenses, check out the latest Power 37 rankings from Andy Katz. He has Alabama as college basketball's No. 6 team and Tennessee at No. 11.
Note: Stats provided by ESPN