It is recommended for Alabama Crimson Tide fans to view the college football world through crimson lenses and see a rosy picture rather than a rusty one. Which leads to not saying that the 'fix in' for Alabama and the playoffs. But certain realities cannot be ignored.
Subtly, the Playoff Selection Committee has indicated an Alabama win over Auburn may not be enough. Whatever the committee opines is a bad loss for Alabama in the SEC Championship, the stage is set to knock the Crimson Tide from the playoff field.
Alabama Crimson Tide Iron Bowl Win?
After Auburn's Deuce Knight exploded against Mercer on Saturday, the Iron Bowl point spread has shrunk. Late Sunday morning, per FanDuel, the spread was down to the Crimson Tide -4.5 points. The spread could be described as a chimera, which, for any Auburn fan reading this, means a delusion.
Alabama is a better team than Auburn. But a fair question is on Saturday night, how much better?
Kane Wommack has improved the Alabama defense so much, it can be argued it is better than DJ Durkin's defense. Against SEC teams, Alabama leads the SEC in allowing 19 points per game. Alabama is No. 1 in Passing Defense Rating. Auburn is No. 8. Auburn is better at rushing defense, with a three-yard allowed average. The Crimson Tide's average is 4.47 yards. But, going back to the Tennessee game, the Alabama defense has allowed just 3.1 yards.
Auburn's rushing offense has better than Alabama's in SEC games, averaging 3.69 yards to 3.06 yards. Auburn fans are convinced that Deuce Knight dramatically changes that comparison. Against not a bad Mercer team, Auburn rushed for 277 yards. Nine carries gave Knight 162 of those yards. He was also 15-for-20 passing for 239 yards.
A reality discomforting to Alabama football fans is that Knight is the type of dual-threat quarterback that Alabama has struggled against going back to the Tide's Nick Saban era.
An even more uncomfortable reality for Alabama fans is that in both turnovers and accuracy, Ty Simpson has regressed. On Saturday, Austin Mack and Keelon Russell were more impressive. There is no sudden QB controversy in Tuscaloosa, but given the Tide's ineffective rushing attack, Simpson's slide does not bode well for the Iron Bowl.
There are two more troubling Iron Bowl realities. The last three Iron Bowls in Auburn have been close games. The Tigers won by three points in 2019. Alabama won by two in 2021 and by three last season.
Going back to 2013, the teams have split six Iron Bowls in Auburn, with the average winning margin for each team of seven points. Alabama has won the last six Iron Bowls in Tuscaloosa by an average of almost 21 points.
Like it or not, Jordan-Hare makes a big difference. This year Auburn has one huge advantage. In a close game decided by a field goal, the Tigers have an outstanding kicker. Alabama does not.