Look hard enough, and you'll find a few sources predicting an Alabama win over LSU on Saturday. Actually, make that very few. Bama Hammer's John Mitchell will include my prediction on Friday. I'm holding on, to a strong belief that Alabama can win.
Will Alabama win is different from 'can' the Tide win in Baton Rouge. If the game were in Bryant-Denny, I certainly would predict a win. But despite Alabama's historical success in Baton Rouge, Tiger Stadium gives LSU a bigger advantage than Neyland Stadium does for Tennessee.
Alabama Predictions from top computer models
ESPN's FPI gives the Crimson Tide a 43% probability of winning. FanDuel's research is lower; just a 32.8% probability. Brian Fremeau's FEI model gives Alabama a 39.2% probability of winning. Bill Connelly's SP+ model has the Alabama win probability at 34%. Jeff Sagarin's model is in the middle of the same range, with an Alabama win probability of 39%.
Another model I follow weekly is provided by Kenneth Massey. He has the Crimson Tide winning with a probability of 54%.
What do the percentages mean? My conclusion is that no model or college football expert can 100% predict the big game's winner.
Model and Expert Score Predictions
- Let's start with the only one of six predicting the Alabama Crimson Tide to win. Kenneth Massey's score prediction is Alabama 30 - LSU 28. Massey's model ranks Alabama as college football's No. 7 team, with LSU No. 12.
- Jeff Sagarin - LSU Bengal Tigers 30.83 - Alabama Crimson Tide 28.09
- Bill Connelly SP+ - LSU 30 - Alabama 23
- Brian Fremeau FEI - LSU 27.3 - Alabama 23.3. Fremeau's efficiency ratings are always worth noting: Offensive Efficiency - Alabama No. 11, LSU No. 6; Defensive Efficiency - Alabama No. 7, LSU No. 3; Special Teams Efficiency - Alabama No. 10, LSU No. 49.
- A couple of human sources also predict LSU wins. Former Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy has the Bengal Tigers winning 27 - 20. Matt Melton of RollTide Wire has LSU winning 30-26.
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