The Alabama Crimson Tide was one of eight SEC basketball teams to post wins in the First Round of the SEC Tournament. After an uneven performance in the win over Robert Morris, some Alabama fans wonder if the team has what it takes for a Big Dance run.
Since last year, Nate Oats has talked about competing for a National Championship. The bar was set for, an at minimum, return to the Final Four. Against Robert Morris, the Crimson Tide did not look like an Elite Eight team. Alabama's path of St. Mary's and either Wisconsin or BYU is favorable if the team plays near the top of its game. Defensive weaknesses, three-point shooting inconsistency, and against Robert Morris, offensive rebounding point to a team not nearly at its best.
ESPN Analytics gives the Crimson Tide a 65.9% probability of beating St. Mary's. Warren Nolan's computer model has Alabama winning 75-71. Ken Pomeroy has Alabama winning by a similar score. ESPN's model gives Alabama only a 43.8% probability of advancing to an Elite Eight game.
After the Robert Morris game, Nate Oats spoke about Alabama's offensive rebounding, "You've got to give them a lot of credit. We knew they'd play tough... we didn't do a good enough job keeping them off the glass. You look at a kid like Dickerson, he had more offensive rebounds than our entire team combined."
One reason for the Crimson Tide's weakness on the glass was Grant Nelson playing only seven minutes. His late boost, plus a strong performance by Mo Dioubate, and Mark Sears drawing fouls, followed by shooting 11-of-13 at the free throw line explains how Alabama advanced. Dioubate's 18 points, along with 17 points from Cliff Omoruyi were also essential. But neither player pulled down an offensive board.
Nate Oats added that St. Mary's is "huge on the interior" posing a more formidable challenge on the glass. According to Ken Pomeroy's computer model, the Gaels are No. 2 in Div. 1 in offensive rebounding.
Alabama Crimson Tide Focus
Did the Crimson Tide not take Robert Morris seriously enough? Nate Oats said, "I don't want to say we overlooked them, but it certainly looked like it at times in the game, especially on the rebounding side of it." St. Mary's with their slow-as-molasses pace of play could crumble at the Crimson Tide's pace of play. To execute that pace, Alabama cannot afford a deficit on the backboards.