Under Kalen DeBoer, the Alabama Crimson Tide has won big games and lost big games. The bad big game losses are troubling, but worse has been Alabama losing games it should have won. That cannot happen again in the 2026 season.
The Crimson Tide cannot afford to struggle and lose against a weaker team in any game. Essential to making the Playoffs, Alabama must go into the Georgia game with a 5-0 record. Beginning with being a home underdog against the Bulldogs, Alabama will have a five-game run with little margin for error.
Using Kenneth Massey's ratings and predictions, Alabama is expected to open the season 5-0. According to Massey's algorithm, the Tide's greatest risk in the first five games is a 77% win probability over Kentucky in Lexington. Slightly higher is a 78% probability of beating Mississippi State in Starkville. A rebuilt Crimson Tide offense starting slowly in Lexington and Starkville would be acceptable, but the games are must-wins.
Massey's predictions are more bullish for Alabama's three early home games. Beating East Carolina has a 93% probability; Florida State is an 82% Tide win, and South Carolina is 81%.
Another perspective on how essential it will be for Alabama to start 5-0 comes from Bill Connelly. Connelly's SP+ rankings have the Crimson Tide as the SEC's fifth-best team. Above the Crimson Tide are opponents Georgia, LSU, and Texas A&M (plus non-opponent, Texas). If wins and losses match Connelly's rankings, a 9-3 Alabama must beat every other team on its schedule, or it will fall from Playoff contention.
There is cause for optimism for Alabama football fans: Massey has the Crimson Tide beating Texas A&M and LSU, while losing to Georgia by a single point.
Alabama and four other undefeated SEC teams after CFB Week 5
Massey has Georgia, Texas A&M, and Missouri joining the Crimson Tide at 5-0 after Week 5. Massey predicts one more SEC team will be undefeated: Ole Miss with a 4-0 start.
Based on Massey's predictions, the fans of a trio of SEC teams will have their revival hopes dimmed. The Florida Gators, Kentucky Wildcats, and Arkansas Razorbacks are predicted to start 2-3.
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