When the College Football Playoff committee ranked Alabama football No. 11 on Tuesday, it all but assured the Crimson Tide would be in the playoff as long as SMU beat Clemson.
A Clemson win over SMU would open up the possibility of the ACC getting two bids with the Mustangs ranking three spots ahead of the Crimson Tide at No. 8. An SMU win puts Alabama in with zero drama on Selection Sunday; a Clemson win would put the Tide's fate up in the air.
The committee is undoubtedly rooting for SMU to make the decision easier. A Clemson win and the committee will be forced to choose between options that both set a dangerous precedent moving forward.
Either Alabama gets in over SMU, and the committee punishes the Mustangs for playing in a conference championship game, therefore delegitimizing playing for a conference title when SMU would have been in following the end of the regular season if they weren't forced to play an extra game.
On the other side of the coin, SMU getting in over Alabama tells every team across the country that strength of schedule doesn't matter. No team in the Power-4 played a weaker schedule than SMU. The Mustangs getting in without an automatic berth will have repercussions across the country, just ask Nick Saban.
Athletic Directors across the country will be angling to cancel big non-conference games. Why play teams that can beat you out of conference when the committee is telling you that winning games - no matter who it is against - is all that matters. Is that good for college football? Is that what is best for fans?
The momentum is forming for Alabama to get the final playoff spot regardless of what happens in Charlotte for the ACC Championship.
According to the AllState Playoff Predictor, the Crimson Tide currently has an 86% chance of making the playoff. An SMU win gives Alabama a 99.7% chance, a virtual guarantee. A Clemson win and Alabama still sits at a 72% chance of getting in.
The meltdown over Alabama being ranked ahead of Miami on Tuesday was already epic. Imagine the meltdown that will transpire if Alabama gets in over SMU if Clemson wins the ACC?
Chef's kiss.