Alabama basketball entered the 2024-25 season with National Championship aspirations. If the effort we saw against Robert Morris reciprocates on Sunday, the Crimson Tide is in danger of bowing out in the 2nd Round of the NCAA Tournament. While it may not truly be Final Four or bust, losing during the first weekend of the Big Dance would be disappointing for a team as talented as Alabama.
But every year there's plenty of talented teams that never reach their full potential and fall short of any kind of March Madness run. Nate Oats senses his team is on the verge of that kind of disappointment if they don't play better, and tougher, against Saint Mary's on Sunday night in Cleveland.
"It's going to take some toughness," said Oats in regard to what his team needs to do in order to beat Saint Mary's. "If we come in soft, we're not going to have a chance to win this game."
"I think our defensive rebounding is going to be a big key. You obviously need to get (Saint Mary's) to miss. Our defense has to pick up. It wasn't where we needed it to be against Robert Morris."
(all quotes are via On3 and Charlie Potter on Twitter)
So Oats has issued the warning. Again. He issued a similar warning in the aftermath of the loss to Florida in the semifinals of the SEC Tournament, stating that if they didn't play harder, didn't play tougher in the NCAA Tournament, they were primed for an early exit.
Robert Morris was the tougher, harder playing team on Friday. The Colonials won the offensive glass 16-5. Alabama can't afford a duplicate performance against Saint Mary's, a team that ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebounding rate. They rebound over 40% of their own misses and will punish the Crimson Tide for a lackluster effort on the defensive glass.
As legendary Lakers head coach and long-time NBA executive Pat Riley has said, "No Rebounds, No Rings."
What has to happen for Alabama to beat Saint Mary's and advance to the Sweet 16
Pace of play and rebounding will be what decides this game. Alabama plays at the highest tempo in the country. Saint Mary's plays at one of the slowest (360th out of 365). Alabama will try to speed the game up and increase the number of possessions while Saint Mary's will try to slow it down to a crawl.
The Gaels aren't a particularly potent shooting team. They make under 33% of their three-point attempts, only 51.5% of their twos, and shoot under 70% from the foul line. They combat that by dominating the glass.
Alabama has to make an immediate commitment to the defensive glass and keeping Saint Mary's off the boards. It can't just be the bigs, though Cliff Omoruyi, Grant Nelson, Mo Dioubate, etc. will play a key role. The guards will have to box out and rebound, too. It will take a total team effort.
We've seen this team play to its potential on occasion throughout the season. They just haven't done it consistently. It's now or never for the Crimson Tide.