For most of his freshman season, it appeared that Amari Allen was going to be a one-and-done. He showed significant skill and shooting ability for a 6-foot-8 guard/wing, immediately getting onto the NBA radar and spending most of the year as a projected first-round pick.
But there's been optimism in recent weeks that Allen would return to Tuscaloosa for his sophomore season, mainly due to a late-season slump when the talented rookie slammed headfirst into the freshman wall down the stretch.
Allen's struggles late in the year might not have been as costly as fans may have originally thought, however.
NBA Draft expert Jonathan Wasserman remains high on Allen's potential, and in his latest mock draft on Bleacher Report, he has the Crimson Tide freshman in a spot where he would likely declare. But it's not just about where Wasserman projects Allen to land, but also what Wasserman said that should have Nate Oats prepared to move forward without his star freshman.
Amari Allen projected No. 22 overall in Bleacher Report's latest mock draft
Tankathon has Allen 30th overall on their big board and projects him No. 32 overall in the 2nd Round in their mock. That kind of projection would likely send Allen back to Alabama for his sophomore season.
But Wasserman has Allen up to No. 22 to the Atlanta Hawks in his mock, which is a spot that would likely send Allen to the draft to stay.
Perhaps the most ominious sign about Allen's future is Wasserman writing:
"Scouts expect he'll test the draft process."
It makes sense for Allen to test the NBA waters. There's no harm in it. Labaron Philon did the same a year ago before deciding to return to Alabama for his sophomore season. At this point, that's probably the best Oats and the Crimson Tide could hope for with Allen.
While he hasn't made a decision yet, entering the draft and maintaining college eligibility would allow Allen to gather feedback while competing with the other players in the draft class at the Combine. It would give him and his agent a better idea of his potential draft range.
If Allen enters the draft, he will have until May 27th at 11:59 pm ET to remove his name and return to college.
Following Alabama's loss to Michigan in the Sweet 16, Allen sent a mixed message on his future. He stated that he would return to the Crimson Tide, unless his agent advised him that the NBA was his best option.
Based on Wasserman's latest mock, it looks likely that he'll be steered toward at least going through the draft process. If he does, that will force Oats to pivot and to plan for scenarios that both include and exclude Allen on next year's roster.
With uncertainty surrounding Aden Holloway's future, too, having a second player who may or may not be on the team next year will make Oats' job a lot more complicated this offseason.