The Alabama Crimson Tide dropped 10 spots in the latest ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). Following the FSU loss, Alabama is ranked No. 13, making it the SEC's eighth-highest-ranked team. According to the FPI, the Crimson Tide's new projected regular season record is 6.8-5.3. The FPI gives 24 teams a higher probability of making the playoffs than Alabama, with a 14.6% chance. Alabama's 14.6% matches South Florida.
Digging deeper into ESPN Analytics, the Crimson Tide's win probabilities took major hits after losing to Florida State. Before Saturday, one Alabama opponent, the Georgia Bulldogs, was given a small edge to beat the Crimson Tide. Alabama's probability of winning against the Bulldogs dropped from 41.2% to 22%.
Four more regular-season losses are projected. Alabama was given a 69.9% probability to beat Missouri. The new projection gives Alabama a 45.9% chance of winning. Alabama was at 68.4% to beat Tennessee, and that dropped to 47.3%. The Crimson Tide was at 60.2% to beat South Carolina, and that dropped to 41.9%. Alabama had a 73% probability of beating Auburn. The latest probability crashed to 47.5%.
Early-season analytics are not dependable. Much can change as data is added to models. An example of early-season quirkiness is that Alabama is still the more probable winner against LSU, dropping from 72.8% to 53.1%.
ESPN Bearish on the Alabama Crimson Tide
ESPN's algorithm details are not disclosed, but one provided detail indicates why the model has become so bearish on the Alabama Crimson Tide. Based on the Florida State game, Alabama is ranked No. 120 among FBS teams in Defensive Efficiency. The ranking is stunning considering preseason predictions were Alabama would have one of college football's top defenses. South Carolina's efficiency is yet to be ranked, but among the 15 SEC teams having played a game, Alabama's defense is last.
The University of Alabama has $69M reasons to stick with Kalen DeBoer. DeBoer's buyout can be paid over eight years, so Alabama can afford to fire him. If the Crimson Tide finishes the regular season at 6-6, a negotiated settlement with DeBoer stepping down