Alabama basketball sits in sole possession of 2nd place in the SEC standings with a 7-1 record in conference play (18-3 overall). This year's SEC basketball schedule is a gauntlet for everyone, the Crimson Tide no exception.
Sitting one game behind rival Auburn in the loss column, Alabama doesn't have much margin for error moving forward because of how good the Tigers are. I would anticipate Auburn finishing around 15-3 or 16-2 in conference play, meaning any loss from here on out will be devastating for the Tide's hopes of winning the SEC Regular Season Championship.
Alabama faces a gauntlet the rest of the way, but before the schedule really toughens, there's a few winnable games in a row that the Tide needs to take care of in order to remain neck and neck with Auburn when the Tigers come to Coleman Coliseum on February 15th.
KenPom gives Alabama a >60% chance of winning each of the next three games. Alabama faces Georgia at home on Saturday before getting a week off. The Tide then travels to Arkansas and Texas in back-to-back road games before hosting Auburn.
Texas figures to be the sternest test of the bunch as the Longhorns have played pretty well since an 0-3 start in SEC play. They may have five conference losses, but those all came against teams currently ranked inside the KenPom Top 25. Two of them were at home, but those came against Auburn and Tennessee, which is hardly an indictment on the ability of the team from Austin.
All three games present their own challenges, and you simply cannot overlook anyone in this league. Alabama learned that the hard way when it took a home loss to Ole Miss a couple of weeks ago. Every opponent remaining on Alabama's schedule is capable of beating the Tide if they don't play up to a standard.
Nate Oats understands that. That's why he took some drastic measures to get his team's attention in the last week, culminating with benching All-American guard Mark Sears for the second half of last Saturday's win over LSU. His team responded with a gritty road win over Mississippi State on Wednesday night.
Wins over Georgia, Arkansas, and Texas would put Alabama at 10-1 in conference play heading into the showdown with Auburn. The rest of the schedule looks like this with KenPom providing the current rankings and Alabama's win probability in parenthesis
vs. No. 2 Auburn (41%)
at No. 30 Missouri (58%)
vs. No. 19 Kentucky (71%)
vs. No. 25 Mississippi State (76%)
at No. 6 Tennessee (32%)
vs. No. 4 Florida (54%)
at No. 2 Auburn (18%)
KenPom thinks Alabama is more likely to lose than win both games against Auburn and the road game at Tennessee. The model also believes Alabama will lose one of the two sub-60% win percentage games - at Missouri and at home vs. Florida, putting Alabama's final SEC record at 13-5.
13-5 would be an impressive run through this year's SEC and the Crimson Tide would be a Top-2 seed in the NCAA Tournament with that resume. But it won't be good enough to win the SEC Championship.
With what is upcoming for the Crimson Tide, it can ill-afford to drop any of the next three games. The margin for error is razor-thin in this league, and unfortunately, Alabama used up its one mulligan already by losing to Ole Miss in Tuscaloosa.