Last night's result in the ACC Championship Game was the worst-case scenario for Alabama football and its College Football Playoff hopes. Two results were acceptable: Alabama either needed SMU to beat Clemson, or the Tigers needed to win by multiple scores over the Mustangs. Either result would have had Crimson Tide players, fans, and coaches sitting in the driver's seat for the final playoff spot.
Instead, Clemson blew a 17-point 4th-quarter lead and allowed SMU to come all the way back and tie the game. The Tigers then hit a 55-yard field goal as time expired to win the game by three and open up the possibility of the ACC getting two teams in the playoff field, sending Alabama to Orlando for the Citrus Bowl instead of to South Bend or Happy Valley for the first round of the playoff.
Public perception favors SMU, unsurprisingly, as Alabama fatigue is still alive and well. Warde Manuel and the committee could easily justify putting the Crimson Tide in, using the same justification they used last week to rank Alabama ahead of Miami.
Alabama has three Top-25 wins. SMU has zero. The Mustangs played a worse schedule than the Hurricanes did, too. Their resume is more akin to a Group-of-Five team than a Power-Four team.
But, if oddsmakers are accurate, it's likely that Alabama is going to be left out in favor of SMU.
Current Playoff Odds per FanDuel:
SMU: -520
Alabama: +350
My personal opinion is that Alabama should get the final spot over SMU. The Crimson Tide's resume is better. They played a much tougher schedule and have three Top-25 wins, including a victory over SEC Champion Georgia. SMU's best win was over Duke.
At the end of the day, though, if the oddsmakers are right and the Crimson Tide is left out of the playoff field, they'll only have themselves to blame. They could have afforded a loss to either Vanderbilt or Oklahoma in conjunction with the loss to Tennessee. But losing to both was hard to overcome and kept the Crimson Tide from controlling its own destiny and playing in the SEC Championship Game yesterday.
This is much different than last season when it felt like Alabama had done all it could to secure the No. 4 spot. This year they're hoping against hope to get the final spot as a three-loss team.