Ty Simpson is a top-three quarterback in college football, and he’s probably not No. 2 or No. 3. The redshirt junior has vaulted himself into the Heisman Trophy conversation and has carried the Crimson Tide to eight straight wins despite a disappointing rushing attack that has never gotten going.
Simpson is a high-level rhythm passer who attacks the middle of the field with touch and anticipation, but he still has the arm and athleticism to threaten all levels of the field out of structure. There really isn’t much of a hole in his game. However, there are holes in the Alabama offense, and Brent Venables and Oklahoma might be the perfect team to exploit them.
Alabama’s offensive line hasn’t played up to its billing this year. Now, most of the issues have appeared in the ground game, as they’ve allowed a modest 28.1 percent pressure rate on Simpson this year (84th of 129 FBS QBs with 50 pressured dropbacks). Under pressure, Simpson has fared well, ranking 48th in yards per attempt (6th in the SEC) and 56th in pressure-to-sack rate (7th in the SEC).
Where Simpson and his offensive line’s struggles show up, however, is against the blitz. When blitzed, Simpson’s yards per attempt drops to 7.1, ranking 10th in the SEC, and though he has eight touchdowns to one interception, he has as many turnover-worthy plays as big-time throws (7) according to PFF. His turnover-worthy play rate of 5.2 percent against the blitz is the highest in the conference and 23rd highest in the FBS. That could be trouble against the Sooners.
Brent Venables will send the house at Simpson on Saturday
Overall, Oklahoma’s pass defense is one of the best, ranking 16th in EPA/pass and 7th in opponent passing success rate. Facing the No. 1 rushing success rate defense in the country, the weight of the entire Crimson Tide offense will fall on Simpson’s shoulders, and Venables will be free to dial up diabolical pressure looks against the first-year starter.
The Sooners are one of the most creative blitzing teams in the country, using simulated pressures and complicated blitz looks to confuse opposing quarterbacks and generate free rushers. That creativity is necessary, too, because Venables dials up pressure on nearly every other dropback.
Against Power 4 opponents this season, Oklahoma has a staggering blitz rate of 53.9 percent. The only Power 4 QB Venables has faced and not blitzed on more than half of his dropbacks is Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar, who leads the SEC by far in yards per attempt vs. the blitz at 11.8. Aguilar torched the Sooners for 210 yards and three touchdowns when blitzed in that one, but he was the only QB to have a higher yards per attempt when blitzed vs. Oklahoma than when not.
Simpson can be sure to expect an over 50 percent blitz rate against Oklahoma, and if he takes sacks or if his luck turns and those turnover-worthy plays begin to materialize into turnovers, the Tide could be in big trouble.
With such a high blitz rate, Oklahoma is unsurprisingly No. 2 in the country in sack rate at 11.19 percent. Such a high negative play rate forces teams into more obvious passing downs, as Oklahoma faces the third-longest average third-down distance in the country, perpetuating the cycle.
Simpson has been mostly clean this season, but his turnover-worthy play rate when blitzed is alarming. There have been games when he trusts his athleticism too much, keeps plays alive for too long, and lets his arm arrogance tempt him into difficult throws. This can’t be one of those games, but without a reliable run-game, he can’t play completely risk-averse football, so Saturday might turn into a four-hour tightrope walk.