On Saturday, will all Alabama football fans be Georgia fans?
By Ronald Evans
Consensus in anything is unpredictable. This Saturday night Alabama football fans can choose to root for Tennessee or Georgia. There are good reasons why Alabama football fans would root for the Georgia Bulldogs over the Tennessee Vols. The Vols are ranked above Alabama in the CFP Rankings and Georgia is the Tide's best win, so the Dawgs slipping to a three-loss team would not benefit Alabama.
Not many Alabama fans find it easy to pull for Georgia. Also, many longtime (okay, older) Alabama fans have an entrenched hatred for all things Tennessee. Those in the second group will have little problem hoping for a Georgia win.
Casting aside any debate over the Crimson Tide's most hated rivals, we can turn to how the CFP Selection Committee will view Saturday's UT vs. UGA outcome. Seven of the nine teams ranked above Alabama play this weekend. Indiana and Miami are off in Week 12. Though five of the seven, play road games, the only one with a serious risk of a loss is Tennessee.
Before the latest CFP Rankings, Alabama had the sixth-highest Playoff probability per ESPN (75.7%). Tennessee had the eighth-highest at 73.6%. After the new rankings, Alabama slipped to 72.2% and Tennessee went up to 74.3%. A Georgia win on Saturday would benefit Alabama, based on one situation. That situation is Tennessee quarterback, Nico Iamaleava being healthy enough to play the entire game. Iamaleava is undergoing concussion protocol and on Wednesday night's SEC Availability Report, he was listed as 'Questionable'.
My hunch is if Iamaleava cannot play against Georgia, the Playoff Selection Committee will not harshly punish Tennessee for a loss. If he misses the game and the result is a close Georgia win, I doubt Tennessee will drop more than one spot in the rankings. The best scenario for Alabama Football is for the Vols, with a healthy Iamaleava, to lose to Georgia.
Improving Alabama Football Playoff Chances
A convincing Georgia win would likely adjust ESPN's Playoff Probability to an order of SEC teams being Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss; and Texas A&M far back as a Playoff longshot. If the Vols win, Alabama will take a best-win hit and could be jumped in the Playoff rankings by Ole Miss.
Pulling for Tennessee's opponent is a given for me unless the Vols play Auburn when I irrationally watch while hoping both teams will lose. That makes it easy for me to be 'Go Dawgs' on Saturday night. Sentiment aside, I think a Georgia win improves Alabama's Playoff standing.