Former Alabama basketball player and current Michigan Wolverine Nimari Burnett explained why his team has it all. His description was "size, length, and speed." Burnett is correct that Michigan has all three in abundance.
In adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, Ken Pomeroy's computer model ranks three Sweet 16 teams in a class by themselves: Arizona, Duke, and Michigan. The Wolverines are Division One's No. 2 team in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and the No. 6 team in Offensive Efficiency.
Alabama is ranked No. 3 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and No. 60 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Alabama basketball fans can rightly argue that the Crimson Tide produced its best defensive performance of the season against Texas Tech. If that performance can be replicated, the Tide's full-season No. 60 ranking might be misleading.
Alabama has some tempo advantage, ranked No. 4 in tempo, fastest among the Sweet 16 teams. But the Wolverines are not snails, ranked No. 22 in tempo.
The teams are nearly equal in three-point shooting accuracy, with Michigan at 36.6% and Alabama at 36.1%. The Wolverines are statistically better at defending threes at 30.8% to Alabama's 33.3%.
Alabama vs. Michigan Win Projection
Drilling down into more numbers does not change the fact that, algorithmically, Michigan is better than Alabama. Bart Torvik's model gives the Wolverines a 74% probability of winning, with a score of 93-85.
The Crimson Tide has one advantage that numbers cannot measure. It is belief, individually and collectively held throughout the Alabama roster. Nate Oats has molded a closely-knit group all season. Recent adversity due to Aden Holloway's situation may have further strengthened the player bonds. No doubt being a decided underdog against Michigan provides Alabama with a motivational advantage.
Talking about the challenge against Michigan, Nate Oats said, "We know we're underdogs. Sometimes that's not the worst thing. You come in with a chip on your shoulder." Commenting on the Crimson Tide's victory over Texas Tech, Oats said, "That's the way we need to play. If the ball moves like it did, our intensity on defense is like it is — let's play with anybody in the country."
Belief is the key to Alabama beating Michigan. Can it be an equalizer against a team with strong reasons to be confident of a victory? Presumptive answers can include 'unlikely' and 'maybe'.