A current, credible computer model reinforces something that concerns Alabama basketball fans. In the month of January, the Crimson Tide has not been the team it was earlier in the season. The team that beat St. John's (in New York), Illinois (in Chicago), Clemson and Yale, and battled Purdue fiercely in a 87-80 loss was a better performing team than the Tide has been since.
Alabama began January by blowing out the Kentucky Wildcats in Tuscaloosa. Since that game on Jan. 3, Alabama has lost three of five games, with the two wins against inferior teams, Mississippi State and Oklahoma. Any SEC road win is a good win, but the Bulldogs and the Sooners provided too much challenge for a team Alabama fans believed in December to be Elite Eight caliber.
An injury-depleted roster has been a serious problem, especially in the recent loss to the Tennessee Vols. The Crimson Tide needs injury luck going forward.
Bart Torvik is perhaps best known for his 'Wins Above the Bubble' metric used by the NCAA Selection Committee. Like Ken Pomeroy, Evan Miyakawa, and Kevin Pauga, Torvik tracks many important data points. A subset of his T-Rank Team Rankings can be used to measure how teams are trending. Torvik's data shows that, based on January games, six SEC basketball teams are better than the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Torvik's Power Rankings, calculated only from January games, have Alabama Basketball as No. 33 among all Division One teams. By the same measurement, the six SEC teams ranked above Alabama are: Florida (No. 10), Texas A&M (No. 12), Auburn (No. 13), Vanderbilt (No. 19), Arkansas No. 21), and Tennessee (No. 30).
Alabama Basketball and getting hot when it matters
One of the great things about a college basketball season is that nothing matters but how a team finishes. Getting hot in March matters the most. A much healthier Alabama Crimson Tide has the potential to finish strongly. At 13-6, ESPN rates the Crimson Tide with Division One's No. 1 Strength of Schedule (SOS). Based on the Tide's remaining 12 regular-season games, the Alabama SOS is No. 20.
Looking at Alabama's remaining SEC road games, there is plenty of challenge, particularly against Florida, a suddenly hot Auburn team, and trips to Knoxville and Athens. Tuesday night in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, needs to be more like it was in November and December than what it has been in January.