A loss is a loss, like a win is a win. The result is all that matters, and while it's little solace to Alabama fans and Oklahoma fans will call it sour grapes, it's still the truth: The Crimson Tide had no business losing yesterday's game to the Sooners.
Alabama was the better team.
Oklahoma's offense managed just barely over 200 yards of offense and never had a drive go longer than 41 yards.
Oklahoma fans will puff out their chests about their dominant defense. That dominant defense got gashed for over 400 yards.
Alabama lost simply because of its own mistakes. Three turnovers directly led to 17 Oklahoma points. Special teams miscues - a missed FG by Alabama and a big punt return by Oklahoma - cost Alabama six more.
Alabama handed Oklahoma the game on a silver platter. The Sooners graciously accepted.
You have to give credit where it's due: Oklahoma made Alabama pay for every single one of its mistakes. The Sooners produced points off all three of the Tide's turnovers.
Alabama could have still won if you took away one of them. Or if Justin Jefferson could have hauled in a John Mateer pass that hit him right in the hands in the second quarter, that likely would have been a pick-six. That happened directly before Ryan Williams fumbled on a punt return.
Alabama also probably could have won the game if it hadn't given up a big punt return or if Connor Talty could have hit a chip-shot field goal. They didn't because all of those things happened.
ESPN's Bill Connelly tracks post-game win expectancies for every game in college football. What that does is it tells you the likelihood of the result based purely on the statistics with data from many years of college football history.
Alabama's post-game win expectancy vs. Oklahoma? 95.2%.
LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WEEK 12:
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 16, 2025
OU > Bama 4.8%
Clemson > Louisville 13.4%
UNLV > USU 15.8%
SHSU > Delaware 31.3%
LSU > Hogs 36.0%
Navy > USF 36.8%
USC > Iowa 44.6%
K-State > OSU 47.2%
SDSU > Boise 47.8%
Another funky week!
Full list: https://t.co/yQtdgyQGgz
Alabama's post-game win expectancy vs. Oklahoma was 95.2%
It provides little solace, and honestly probably makes it worse, to realize that Alabama wins that game 9.5 out of 10 times it is played. We just happened to see one of the few results that would have gone against the Crimson Tide yesterday.
Perhaps it's just balancing out what PGWE thought from a couple of results earlier in the year.
Alabama's PGWE against Georgia was only 19.6%. Against Missouri, it was only 26%. Alabama probably deserved another loss than it had.
The 95.2% PGWE this week was only 0.3% lower than last week against LSU in a game that never really felt in doubt. It was 0.5% higher than the win expectancy for Alabama in a 17-point win over Tennessee in the Third Saturday in October. It was 4% higher than it was for the Crimson Tide's 16-point win over Vanderbilt.
So yes. Alabama lost. But it's okay to point out the result was fluky.
It doesn't change anything, but perhaps Alabama fans can realize how unlikely that result was and stop using it as a total indictment of the team and the coaching staff.
