There might not be seven scarier words for Alabama football fans recently than a "road Iron Bowl in Jordan-Hare Stadium." Even though the Crimson Tide has won the last two trips to the Plains, both games resembled 3.5-hour root canals before euphoric finishes.
Alabama had significantly better teams in the 2021 and 2023 Iron Bowls at Jordan-Hare, but that didn't prevent the games from coming down to the wire. Alabama needed a brilliant late drive from Bryce Young and then four overtimes to topple Auburn in 2021. In 2023, it took a 4th-and-31 miracle from Jalen Milroe to Isaiah Bond to deliver the Tide from the jaws of defeat.
Any win on the road against the Tigers is a good win. It doesn't matter how Alabama gets there. Crimson Tide fans would undoubtedly prefer a blowout, but that seems unlikely with how the team has been trending and with Auburn playing better football after firing Hugh Freeze.
Despite the anxiety, however, there is one Iron Bowl fact that should give Alabama fans some comfort.
Major upsets are rare.
Alabama has mostly avoided major Iron Bowl upsets in the last 50 years
Only twice in the last 50 years has Auburn beaten Alabama when the Tigers were underdogs by more than four points. As things stand on Sunday morning, the Crimson Tide is a 4.5-point favorite for next week's game, according to FanDuel.
Those games were in 2013 and 2017, against Auburn teams that are much better than the current iteration that Alabama will face at Jordan-Hare this season. The 2013 Tigers won the SEC Championship and came within one final drive of beating Florida State to win the National Championship. The 2017 Tigers made the SEC Championship Game before getting thumped by Georgia.
The closest example to a major "upset" in recent Iron Bowl history in terms of records for the two teams was in 2019. Alabama was only a 3.5-point favorite, but game into Jordan-Hare at 10-1 against a 7-4 Auburn team. Of course, the Crimson Tide was without star QB Tua Tagovailoa, who suffered a season-ending injury two weeks before in a win over Mississippi State.
Alabama lost the game by three points, thanks to two pick-sixes thrown by Mac Jones and a, gulp, short chip shot field goal missed by a shaky kicker.
It's gut-check time for Kalen DeBoer, Ty Simpson, and Alabama. A win gets Alabama into the SEC Championship Game and likely punches the Tide's ticket to the College Football Playoff. A loss would not only constitute a rare major upset, but would clinch a disheartening November collapse that keeps Alabama sitting at home - again - during the playoff.
(Information was used from Creg Stephenson's Top 10 Iron Bowl upsets article on AL.com from last year.)