Winning next week's SEC Tournament would be great for Alabama Basketball. Nate Oats will be fully committed to winning his third SEC Tournament Championship. At the same time, what follows in the NCAA Tournament matters more.
Three-seeds in the Big Dance advance to the National Championship Game nearly three times more often than do 4-seeds. Currently, the Crimson Tide is projected as a consensus 4-seed by nearly 100 bracketologists tracked by the Bracket Matrix. Alabama's actual seed average as of Mar. 5 is 3.85, tied for the second-highest projected 4-seed.
Based on the current Bracket Matrix average, the only 4-seed above Alabama on the overall seed line is Gonzaga, with a 3.76 average. Kansas trails the Crimson Tide at 3.87, and Virginia is next at 3.92. The currently projected 3-seeds are Iowa State, with a 2.94 seed average, Purdue (3.02), Nebraska (3.03), and Texas Tech (3.49).
The Red Raiders have done surprisingly well since losing their top scorer and top rebounder, JT Toppin, to injury on Feb. 17. Currently at 22-8, Texas Tech could close its regular season with a road loss to BYU. The Red Raiders likely need two Big 12 tournament wins to hold on to a 3-seed.
Currently, Alabama has a Wins Above Bubble (WAB) advantage at No. 10, compared to Gonzaga at No. 12, Iowa State at No. 14, Virginia at No. 13, and Texas Tech at No. 16. The WAB metric impacts Selection Committee decisions.
Top Bracketologist from last season moved Alabama to a 3-seed
The Bracket Matrix publishes annual rankings of its participating bracketologists. Of the 100-plus that participated last season, five were tied at No. 1. One of the five was Kyle Somelofske of Somelofske Sports. Kyles's latest seeding projection for this season has Alabama as a 3-seed. Alabama is below 3-seeds Purdue, Iowa State, and Nebraska and above 4-seeds, Texas Tech, Kansas, Virginia, and Gonzaga.
Obviously, Alabama must beat Auburn and win at least two SEC Tournament games for a chance at a 3-seed on Selection Sunday. Maybe Alabama does not have to beat Florida, but the Crimson Tide must not take another bad loss from the Gators.