The best analytics tool for college football predictions is a subject for debate. For now, the choice for Alabama football fans is easily ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). Not only does ESPN's model favor the Alabama Crimson Tide, but it also serves as a timely reminder of SEC dominance.
The top three spots in the latest FPI are held by Texas, Georgia, and the Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 3. The Big Ten follows with Ohio State (No. 4), Penn State, and Oregon.
With Texas A&M at No. 8 and Tennessee at No. 10, SEC teams hold five of the top 10 spots in the rankings. With LSU at No. 12, Ole Miss No. 13, Auburn No. 14, South Carolina No. 15, Oklahoma No. 16, and Florida at No. 18, the SEC holds 11 of the top 18 spots in the rankings. Two more SEC teams, Arkansas at No. 22 and Missouri at No. 23, give the SEC 12 of the top 23 spots.
The Big 12's master spinner of tall tales, Brett Yormark, must be embarrassed. The highest-ranked Big 12 team is Kansas State at No. 21.
The three other SEC teams are Kentucky at No. 34, Mississippi State at No. 52, and Vanderbilt at No. 56. By comparison, 10 Big Ten teams are ranked lower than Kentucky, ranging from Wisconsin at No. 38 to Purdue at No. 92.
SEC Football and Stunning Strength of Schedule
What should stun many across the world of college football are the Strength of Schedule (SOS) rankings. Every SEC team has an SOS in the top 20. Compared to 16-of-20 for the SEC, the Big Ten has three in the top 20 of SOS, and the ACC has one (Syracuse). Another body blow to Yormark, the Big 12 has none. Oklahoma State has the toughest schedule among Big 12 teams at No. 39.
A deep dive will follow in a later post, reviewing win probabilities for conference championships and Playoff chances. All of which even ESPN (if pressed) would admit are premature until well into the season. For now, ESPN provides Greg Sankey with fuel to argue his Playoff format preferences. It is worth noting that Sankey has always preferred a 12-team format with no automatic bids, based on rankings. He said so again this week. Check out his comments below.
Sankey knows that just picking the best teams will never happen, no matter how much better the format would be in determining a national champion. He also knows the SEC is the 'Big Dog' in college football, no matter how many others want to deny it.