Unlike the hype often associated with many sports events, the Alabama Crimson Tide vs. the Georgia Bulldogs is expected to be a true barn burner. Picking the game's winner is no easy task. According to FanDuel, the spread has shrunk to the Bulldogs being favored by 2.5 points. Alabama fans can argue that means the Crimson Tide is the better team, because Sanford Stadium is usually calculated to add around four points to Georgia's score in any game.
A fair assumption is that the game is a toss-up, making any prediction a guess. ESPN Analytics has projected the Bulldogs as the winner for weeks, with a 54.8% probability of success. Bill Connelly's SP+ computer model has been considered credible for many years. Though Connelly is affiliated with ESPN, his model pre-dates that association.
Roll Tide Wire's Steve Holley describes Connelly's model as "popular". In reality, many college football fans only respect computer models and polls when they favor their team. This week, at least, popular is a correct word for the SP+ model and its assessment by Alabama Crimson Tide fans. Connelly's model has Alabama winning by a score of 27-26. It gives the Alabama Crimson Tide a 52% probability of winning.
In Connelly's SP+ rankings, Alabama is ranked No. 4 among FBS teams. The Georgia Bulldogs are ranked No. 9.
Connelly claims his model is "a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football." Even Alabama Crimson Tide fans who distrust computer models can find comfort that Connelly's model is not the only one projecting an Alabama win. However, with only three games having been played by each team, insufficient data is available to provide reliable predictions.
An Alabama Crimson Tide Barn Burner
Perhaps we should simply call Saturday night's game a barnburner and leave it at that. Alabama can certainly win ... so could Georgia.
For those interested in the origin of the barn burner term, it comes from a 19th-century political group so extreme that they were described as willing to burn everything down to achieve their goals. They were called the Barnburners. U.S. President Martin Van Buren was associated with the Barnburners. The label itself comes from a folktale of a farmer burning down his barn to rid it of rats.