Alabama Crimson Tide over Georgia put Bama in a near tie with Texas for No. 1 in ESPN FPI

After Week 5 games, Texas and the Alabama Crimson Tide remain at the top of the ESPN FPI rankings. ESPN lists the Longhorns at No. 1 and Alabama at No. 2. The actual FPI ranking for the two teams is the same at 27.9. Ohio State held on to the No. 3 slot and the Georgia Bulldogs held on to No. 4, despite losing to the Crimson Tide.

The ESPN algorithm calculates a predictive ranking, meaning a measurement of the strength of teams as they go forward in their schedules. The 'going forward' part explains why Ole Miss, after losing to Kentucky, held on to the No. 6 spot in the FPI. The Wildcats jumped 15 spots; up to No. 23 from the road win over the Rebels.

In ESPN's calculation of the probability of winning the SEC, Texas is at 38.5% and Alabama is at 31.4%. Georgia nose-dived to 5.6%, but only Tennessee at 15%, the Longhorns and the Crimson Tide are higher than the Bulldogs.

Alabama Crimson Tide Big Playoff Boost

Alabama and Texas lead the FBS in CFB Playoff chances, with an ESPN calculation of 91.1%. The algorithm now gives only eight teams a probability higher than 46.4% to make the Playoff field. Following the Longhorns and the Crimson Tide are Ohio State at 84.7%, Tennessee at 79%, Georgia at 72.3%, Miami at 61.3%, Penn State at 60.7%, and Oregon at 59.5%.

Seven more teams are given Playoff probabilities of 30.5% to 46.4%, including Ole Miss at 41.1% and Missouri at 32.6%.

Only five teams are given a higher than 9.4% probability of making it through the Playoffs to the National Championship Game. They are the Texas Longhorns at 34.7%, the Alabama Crimson Tide at 32%, Ohio State at 30.4%, Tennessee at 18%, and the Georgia Bulldogs at 17.9%.

College football fans have reason to doubt ESPN's FPI for a few more weeks. In previous seasons, at least half a season of games have been needed for the model to sort itself past some questionable rankings.