Alabama Football plays host to Georgia on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa in a game getting a lot of attention and fanfare. It always does when these two teams meet on the gridiron and this matchup promises to be one of the marquee matchups of the college football season.
It could also be the first of possibly three games against the Bulldogs this season for the Crimson Tide. It's quite possible the two meet once again in Atlanta for the SEC Championship and again in the expanded College Football Playoff.
These two teams are evenly matched from a talent perspective, and the game will likely come down to the things on the margins: can you take care of the football? Can you convert third downs and keep your opponent from converting third downs?
It's the latter part of those questions where Alabama holds the biggest statistical advantage through three games each that could ultimately prove to be the difference in a tight game.
Third Down Offense and Defense
Alabama is the No. 1 team in the country in third-down defense. Through three games, the Crimson Tide is only allowing opponents to convert on third-downs 16% of the time. Kane Wommack would tell you that stat is a bit misleading because of how many short fourth-downs the defense has allowed, leading to teams being comfortable going for it on 4th down, but 16% is a stout number no matter which way you slice it.
Conversely, Georgia's offense has struggled on third-downs a bit. Georgia is converting only 38% of their third down opportunities, which is 74th in the country. The biggest issue the Bulldogs have faced is they've struggled when they've gotten off schedule.
No matter how good Carson Beck is, Georgia's offense still revolves around being able to run the football and dominate the line of scrimmage. They've been solid on the ground, but far from the vintage Georgia ground attacks we've seen in the past. When the Bulldogs have been in obvious passing downs, they have put up a success rate of only 33%. Their biggest issue against Kentucky in the last game was their inability to run the football and win the early downs, which led to longer 3rd down attempts and outside of Dominic Lovett, they struggled finding open receivers.
On the other side of the football, as good as Georgia's defense has looked - and they haven't allowed a touchdown in 12 quarters of football this season - they have struggled to get off the field on third down. Kentucky converted 9-of-16 third down opportunities, mainly because they found rare success between the tackles running the football. The 'Cats racked up 170 rushing yards and imposed their will on big, bad Georgia.
For the season, Georgia's defense has given up 45% of opponent third-downs, which ranks 91st in the country. Alabama has converted 53% of its third downs on offense, good for 12th in the nation. If Alabama can copy the Kentucky formula and have success on the ground in early downs, they'll set themselves up for shorter third down conversions. Jalen Milroe is a nightmare on third down because of his ability to extend plays and beat you with his arms and legs, a fact that Kirby Smart is well aware of.
Obviously, three games is too small of a sample size to draw real conclusions, but I do find it interesting that for Georgia there hasn't been a statistical outlier in third down performance; they've been pretty consistent, particularly on offense, in their third down performance this season. They've yet to have a game where they convered > 50% of their attempts on third down.
If Alabama can find early down success on both offense and defense, their statisical advantage on third downs will become a big factor.
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