Alabama Football will need continued one-score game success from Kalen DeBoer

Success for Alabama Football in the 2024 season will come down to how well the Crimson Tide does in close games. Based on current betting odds, four of Alabama's regular season games will have a spread of 4.5 points or less. The Crimson Tide is the favorite in three of the games but at 2.5 points or less.

In Nick Saban's 17-season run in Tuscaloosa, the GOAT was 30-20 in one-score games. Take away six Alabama, one-score losses in the 2007 season, and Saban was 30-14; 68.2%. Kalen DeBoer was 8-0 in one-score games last season with the Washington Huskies. In DeBoer's nine seasons as a head coach, his overall one-score games record is 26-6; 81.3%.

Coaching the NAIA program Sioux Falls for five seasons (2005-2009), DeBoer was 10-2 in one-score games; 83.3%. Winning close games was key to DeBoer leading Sioux Falls to three National Championships in the five seasons.

What does it mean for Alabama football?

Can Kalen Deboer have similar magic in winning close games at Alabama? His overall head coaching record is 104-12. At the FBS level, with Fresno State and Washington, DeBoer was 12-2 against ranked top 25 teams. DeBoer's coaching record includes Fresno State being 4-2 in one-score games and Washington being 12-2 in one-score games.

The data is interesting. How meaningful it is to predict DeBoer's Alabama Crimson Tide success; is questionable. It can be concluded that DeBoer does not panic or wilt in close games. It can also suggest that his teams may not have been great at putting away lesser opponents. It can be argued the level of competition in the SEC is so much more difficult that DeBoer's past, one-score game success is irrelevant.

In October and November, in what are projected to be close games against Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma, Kalen DeBoer's close game magic will be tested.