Alabama has a lot to prove after preseason Coaches Poll release
With yesterday’s release of the 2024 preseason Coaches Poll, Alabama Football has something to prove to the rest of the country heading into 2024.
Sure, a preseason top-5 ranking is far from disrespectful. Some would say it’s reasonable given that the Tide experienced a coaching change and a lot of roster turnover this offseason. Still, I would argue that Bama fatigue and the borderline unrealistic expectations that Coach Nick Saban set forth are the reason the Tide sits at no. 5.
It’s hard to imagine that Alabama won’t be on the short list of title contenders in 2024. When you look at the Tide’s roster (which is still arguably the most talented in the sport) in combination with Coach Kalen DeBoer (one of the blossoming stars in the coaching world with a 104-12 career record), it’s tough to bet against Alabama.
Without the context of the Saban era, I think this is a top-3 team. However, when the greatest coach of all time retires from the sport, it’s inevitable for the public to expect a dropoff to some degree. Hence, Alabama will enter 2024 with its lowest preseason ranking since 2009, Saban’s third season at the helm. Of course, the Tide would go on to win a national title that year.
Is the Coaches Poll underrating Alabama?
Georgia is almost universally considered to be the best team in the country. The Bulldogs won back to back national titles in 2021 and 2022 before being knocked from their perch by Alabama in last season’s SEC Championship game. With top-5 recruiting classes in each of the last five years, they are one of only two rosters in the country that can match up with the Tide on paper. Additionally, Georgia may have the best coaching staff in the country led by Kirby Smart. Add in the program’s significant College Football Playoff experience over the last three years, and it’s hard to argue that Georgia should be preseason no. 1.
Similarly, Ohio State also has a stacked roster. Like Alabama and Georgia, the Buckeyes have five straight top-5 recruiting finishes and they loaded up with proven difference-makers in the transfer portal this offseason. While there are questions about the program’s toughness and Coach Ryan Day’s ability to win the big game, Ohio State surely looks like a championship contender and is deserving of the no. 2 spot.
Oregon and Texas, coming in at the no. 3 and no. 4 spots respectively, are a little more questionable. Neither teams’ roster can be denied; both have recruited well and added stars at key positions via the transfer portal. Both also have elite coaches. Oregon’s Dan Lanning is a fierce competitor and one of the best defensive minds in the sport, while Texas’ Steve Sarkisian is an offensive mastermind.
Still, neither have taken that next step as a program.
Oregon has been a borderline elite program for the last six years, first under Mario Cristobal and now under Lanning. Even so, they haven’t made a playoff appearance since 2014 or even won a PAC-12 title since 2019. Considering the questionable competition in the league prior to last year, the Ducks have underachieved.
They were dominated (twice) by a less talented Utah team in 2021, lost winnable late-season games against rivals Washington and Oregon State in 2022, and once again couldn’t get over the hump against Washington (twice) in 2023.
On three straight occasions over the last two years, Oregon lost to Washington teams with inferior rosters. After coaching the Huskies to those improbable wins and a national championship appearance, Kalen DeBoer now resides in Tuscaloosa. Of course, Dan Lanning is a very young coach just entering his third season, so he deserves some patience. But why are we so bullish on Oregon if Alabama has the better roster and the better, more experienced coach?
Texas is a little more understandable. The Longhorns are a blueblood program who beat Alabama, won the Big 12, and made the College Football Playoff last season. Though the Horns have been woefully underwhelming in the playoff era (and lost to DeBoer when they finally made it), they have the infrastructure to once again become a powerhouse.
To play contrarian, it’s possible that too much stock is being put into one good season. As I said previously, Texas’ roster is elite, but it will have to answer questions at receiver and on the defensive line where it lost a lot of NFL talent.
In my opinion, the differences between Alabama, Texas, and Oregon are splitting hairs. It’s hard to argue with any order that anybody puts these three in, as long as they’re all in the top five. Still, I believe Bama fatigue has contributed to a starkly different national perception of the three programs and is ultimately the reason why the Tide is at no. 5 to start the season.
This Alabama team already enters 2024 with a chip on its shoulder and something to prove. If it is being under-ranked, it will have every chance to show it on the field.