Alabama has some room for error in 12-team playoff era
Alabama Football is a proud program that intends to win the SEC and compete for national championships every year. With the introduction of the 12-team playoff format, the Tide has some room for error if its end goal is a national title.
Of course, this expanded playoff comes with an expanded SEC and more difficult schedules across the board in major college football. So, in the event that the Crimson Tide drops some regular season games and fails to win the SEC, how many wins would it need to compete for an at-large playoff bid?
According to Kelley Ford’s KFord Power Ratings, Bama would be in pretty good shape with nine wins considering the strength of its regular season schedule. Of course, the Tide would put itself at the mercy of the committee with a 9-3 record. At that point, a playoff bid would be more dependent on the quality of the Tide's wins and losses, which way the team was trending, and the resumes of other contending teams.
How many regular season wins does your team need to be in conversation for a CFP at-large bid?
— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) July 3, 2024
*Order within the tier matters. Georgia’s 9 wins would be more impressive than Vanderbilt’s, which would be more impressive than Arkansas’, etc. pic.twitter.com/wuXepya3oG
Alabama should easily reach 9-win mark in 2024
When looking at Bama’s 2024 schedule, nine wins should be fairly easy to come by. Though the schedule is challenging, Alabama has not finished with fewer than nine regular season wins since 2007. Heading into the upcoming season, 9-3 is on the lower end of the expectations of most Bama fans and national pundits alike.
The Tide should earn non-conference wins against South Florida, Western Kentucky, and Mercer without much trouble. It should also beat SEC opponents Vanderbilt and South Carolina with relative ease. Wisconsin, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Auburn are all respectable opponents who could give Alabama some trouble. However, the Tide will be expected to win these games.
If Bama handles business in all of these games, it will reach the 9-win mark regardless of the outcomes of its three toughest games. Those contests, against Georgia, at Tennessee, and at LSU, will be opportunities for Kalen DeBoer’s team to establish itself as a legitimate national contender. One of the more popular predictions on the optimistic end for Alabama calls for the Tide to win two of these three games while avoiding any major upsets for an 11-1 record.
Given the tradition and recent history of Alabama Football, it would certainly be a massive disappointment if Bama fell short of that 9-win landmark and/or missed the playoff.