An Alabama fall-off is wishful thinking
The fall-off, or at least the gradual decline, of the Alabama Football program has been widely anticipated across the college football landscape. Naturally, rival fan bases and media hope for the worst for the Crimson Tide following the retirement of Nick Saban. Even people affiliated with schools that have no connection to the Tide are rooting for the fall of the dynasty. They’ve watched Alabama win at an unprecedented clip for the last 15 years and they’re ready to see something new.
And sure, there are reasons to believe the dynasty is coming to an end. Alabama has already gone three straight years without a national championship for the first time in the Saban era. Now, the greatest coach of all time has called it quits. On top of that, the Tide lost a lot of talent from last season’s team. Its leading rusher, leading receiver, leading tackler, and several first round draft picks on the defensive side of the ball have all departed. Add in a pretty tough schedule in the new-look SEC, and several pundits' predictions fall below what has become the Alabama standard.
The Tide was picked to finish a distant third in the league by SEC media, and the betting line for its regular season win total sits at 9.5. Bama received just 12 votes to win the conference, as opposed to 27 for newcomer Texas and a whopping 165 for the Georgia Bulldogs, a team Alabama just beat in December’s SEC title game. Additionally, Alabama has won 10 or more regular season games in 15 of the last 16 seasons, including 13 straight.
Is it that safe to assume that Kalen DeBoer’s first team will be worse, at least on paper, than almost any team of the Nick Saban era? I wouldn’t jump to that conclusion so fast.
Yes, Alabama loses a lot of great players, but the cupboard is far from bare. In fact, Alabama will still be arguably the most talented team in the country. It returns an electric quarterback in Jalen Milroe, as well as every key piece from an offensive line that was finding its groove late last season. Bama also brings back most of its defensive interior, though it must prove itself on the edges and in the secondary.
Alabama is still a national title contender
The production and leadership that the Tide returns from last season will be the core of the 2024 team. The 2023 squad won the SEC with an unblemished record and took the eventual national champs to overtime in the College Football Playoff. That team’s winning culture, and the unfinished business it left on the table, should carry over into the upcoming season.
To that returning group, Alabama adds another top-tier recruiting class filled with blue chip talent. Coach Kalen DeBoer and the new staff also did a great job in the transfer portal, filling most of the obvious holes in the roster and hitting a couple of home runs.
As usual, Bama’s talent will be on par with anybody in the country. Now, DeBoer and his staff become the X-factor. Coach DeBoer is a proven winner who now has access to more resources than ever before. He has assembled a staff of what appears to be an all-star cast of young coaches.
This staff brings a fresh approach to the game, one that seems fitting as we enter a new era of college football. Their energy has already carried over to the recruiting trail, where Alabama is exceeding expectations in the 2025 cycle.
If they can do the same on the field, there will be no drop-off. In what would be a frightening development for the rest of the country, the Saban-to-DeBoer transition could be seamless. Though it will look and feel different, the super-dynasty that has spanned several chapters of the sport itself might just continue on under Kalen DeBoer.