An early Week 5 SEC Football Bold Prediction about Auburn and Hugh Freeze

Alabama football fans are loving Auburn's meltdown. Auburn fans are loudly calling for Hugh Freeze to be fired. Looming for Freeze is the most important game of his coaching career since he beat Nick Saban and Alabama in the 2015 season. Week 5 brings the Oklahoma Sooners to Auburn and if Auburn loses, the 2024 season will become a disaster.

After the Oklahoma game, Auburn will be on the SEC road for three games; Georgia in Athens, Missouri in Columbia, and Kentucky in Lexington. Two November home games could become losses; followed by what will be, a beatdown in Tuscaloosa.

As bad as it is for Freeze and Auburn, the Tigers are catching a break. The Sooners have a solid defense, but the Oklahoma offense will limp into Auburn with a true freshman QB and an offensive line that cannot pass protect. Oklahoma's quarterbacks were sacked three times against Tennessee but were frequently under pressure. Jackson Arnold played so poorly against the Vols, that the only sound option for Brent Venables is true freshman, Michael Hawkins Jr. Considering the game situation when Hawkins replaced Arnold Saturday night, the freshman did well. But his college career is 22 passes thrown and 14 rushes.

After Saturday, against Power Four teams Hugh Freeze has a 4-8 record at Auburn. FanDuel has Oklahoma favored by 2.5 points against the Tigers. I have two early-week Bold Predictions for the game. One is Auburn will win an ugly game. The second is, that if that prediction is wrong, no one in a power position at Auburn University will consider firing Hugh Freeze.

As Andrew Hughes of Fly War Eagle explained Auburn cannot afford to fire Hugh Freeze. The problem has nothing to do with money. Hughes explained Freeze's long leash. "Freeze's saving grace is his continued success on the recruiting trail. Having a top-20 class in 2023 with a limited window to recruit, a top-10 class in 2024, a top-five class in 2025, and the No. 2 class in 2026 will keep him in charge. Firing a guy who's been stacking top recruiting classes year after year is not the proper way to build a program. "

Auburn was a mess when Freeze took over. He has made progress, but some or much of that progress could evaporate in the coming weeks. Alabama football commit, 5-star, Caleb Cunningham was in Jordan-Hare on Saturday. Some reports are he left early. What he said later was, "I didn't see what I wanted to see."

Auburn was not a real threat to flip Cunningham. The problem for Auburn is as losses mount (and they will) momentum with the 2026 class will fade and current 2025 class commits will flip to other programs. If the attrition snowballs, Hugh Freeze will not have a long leash. He'll have no leash at all.