Calculating Alabama Football wins needed for College Football Playoff at-large bid

How many regular season wins would earn Alabama Football a CFB Playoff at-large bid? A few weeks back we discussed that 9-3 SEC teams should not be bumped from a Playoff slot by 10-2 teams from other conferences. A recent (more objective) opinion provides some concurrence.

The site KFORD RATINGS generally agrees with the contention. It concludes the Alabama Crimson Tide, along with nine other SEC teams would need only nine, regular season wins to be in contention for a CFB Playoff at-large slot. The calculations are driven by the strength of each team's regular season opponents. According to the site, one SEC team, the Florida Gators would need only eight wins.

As the tweet shows, four SEC teams, Texas A&M, Texas, Ole Miss, and Tennessee would need 10 regular season wins. There is no truth to the rumor that Texas boosters have made KFORD RATINGS an offer that can't be refused so they can purchase and shut down the site.

Where will the nine wins for Alabama Football come from in 2024?

Using KFORD's calculations, Alabama has the second-highest probability among SEC teams to win six regular season, conference games. For Texas, the probability is 33% and Alabama is 32%, followed by Georgia at 31%. The percentages for seven conference wins are Georgia and Texas at 37%, with a big dip down for the Crimson Tide at 17%. For seven wins, LSU has the fourth-best chance at 12%.

Getting to nine might not be a 100% slam dunk for the Crimson Tide, but any 8-4 predictions are nonsense. The Crimson Tide will beat WKU, USF, and Mercer. Alabama is also expected to beat Wisconsin in the out-of-conference slate.

Adding five more, with the most probable listed first begins with a win in Nashville over Vanderbilt. Two more are Crimson Tide home games against South Carolina and Auburn. The next one would be a win over Missouri in Bryant-Denny. If Georgia squeaks past the Tide in September, the Vandy, South Carolina, Missouri, and Auburn wins only get the Crimson Tide to eight regular season wins.

Reaching the nine-win plateau would require a road win at either, Knoxville, Baton Rouge or Norman. There is no way Alabama will lose all three games. Mark the Sooners down for the Tide's ninth regular season win, but I'm almost as confident that Alabama will win against Tennessee or LSU - and maybe both.