CFB model predicts an Alabama Football win in a defensive slugfest

How does a 14.7 points to 10.9 points Alabama Football win over Georgia sound? That is how the College Football Nerds model calculates the outcome of Saturday night's game. The Nerds explain that early in the season, limited data produces some wonky numbers.

The College Football Nerds model is widely respected. That is impressive for two guys who many consider to be Alabama Crimson Tide fans. An example of how objective the Nerds can be is after considering their model's calculation the Nerds split on their individual game predictions, that go beyond the model's calculations. Josh has the Crimson Tide winning 24-21, with Daniel picking the Bulldogs to win, 27-20.

Unlike other computer models, the Nerds delay their first data release each season until after Week 4. In the case of the Crimson Tide and the Bulldogs, the first calculation of the 2024 season is limited to only three games of data.

Given the limited data and the admitted wonkiness of the model's first calculation, it is understandable why their tea leaf reading results in a very different score prediction. An interesting observation from Josh is the teams are so evenly matched, that if they played 10 games against each other, no team would win more than six games.

A detailed explanation of their model and how each of them view Alabama and Georgia is available in the video below.

The video is so full of valuable insights it warrants a complete viewing. For readers not having half an hour for video viewing, Daniel picking the Bulldogs is driven by his concern about Alabama's interior rush defense and the Crimson Tide's 'Boom or Bust' offense. He sees Georgia as the better team now. He sees Alabama as having more potential for development and later in the season, he believes Alabama could have the upper hand. A dangerously simplistic summary of Josh's perspective is Alabama does enough things somewhat better than Georgia, giving the Crimson Tide a slight edge.

What other models project for Alabama Football vs. Georgia

Although ESPN's model is more bullish on the Crimson Tide, not all other models agree. ESPN Analytics gives Alabama Football a 66% win probability. Brian Fremeau's FEI model gives Georgia a 53.9% likelihood of winning, with an estimated score of 25.2-23.8.

One more respected model that favors the Alabama Crimson Tide is provided by Dave Congrove. Congrove's model has Alabama as a 3.37-point favorite.