College Football Playoff Pretenders after Week 1

There has been only one full week of college football. That means there are no 'for sure' College Football Playoff Pretenders. Even Florida State at 0-2, after being spanked by Boston College on Monday night, is technically in Playoff contention if the Seminoles run the rest of the regular season table.

ESPN's Analytics gave FSU a 9.6% chance to make the Playoffs before losing to Boston College. So let's go ahead and begin this updated Pretender list with FSU. Instead of regaining Contender status, the Noles appear on track to gain recognition as the 'Greatest Pretender' of the CFB Playoff era.

Based on games through Sun. Sept. 1, ESPN has 26 Power Four teams with a greater than 11% probability of making the Playoff field. A month ago, FSU and Texas A&M were two of 32 teams with a Playoff probability of 11.5% or greater. No longer included in any sensible contender list, this Week 1 Pretender List begins with the Noles and the Aggies.

2024 CFB Playoff Pretenders

• Florida State Seminoles (0-2); For the record, Alabama was interested in Mike Norvell. Fortunately, Greg Byrne decided Kalen DeBoer was a better choice. Norvell did not turn down the Alabama job. He was considered but not offered the job.

• Texas A&M Aggies (0-1) - The Aggies made the list not because of losing to Notre Dame in College Station. That was not a bad loss, but A&M had no offensive pulse and looked like a team that could lose another three, and maybe four games.

A month ago I made a preseason list of seven Power Four Playoff Pretenders. I was wrong about USC and Tennessee. From that original list, I'm keeping two of the others as Pretenders. They are SMU with a 16.5% probability assigned by ESPN and Auburn with 17.4%. Maybe the Mustangs have a slim chance, but the Aubies, at any double-digit percentage, make me question the totality of ESPN analytics.

• SMU (2-0) and Auburn (1-0)

CFB Playoff Pretender Watch List (ESPN % calculations included)

• LSU Bengal Tigers (0-1) - LSU was on my August Pretender list, ESPN now has them way down at 6.1%.

• Clemson Tigers (0-1) - It is not that Clemson lost to Georgia, but that Dabo's team lost so badly. ESPN now has Clemson at 13.2% probability of making the Playoffs.

• Oklahoma (1-0) was on my August list. Since then ESPN dropped the Sooners' Playoff chances from 36.6% to 31.5%.

• The Michigan Wolverines (1-0) are down to a 23.4% probability.

• The Oregon Ducks (1-0) are down to 33.6%.

Check back after CFB Week 2 for the Pretender projection update.