ESPN makes the Alabama Crimson Tide a bigger favorite over the Georgia Bulldogs
By Ronald Evans
Outside the SEC, ESPN's Analytics are suspected of being too SEC-friendly. Alabama football fans, along with most SEC fanbases disagree. The debate rages because, in ESPN's latest FPI, five of the top six are SEC teams. Fans disgruntled with ESPN can turn to Tim Brando. The longtime Bama-hater has five SEC teams in the top 10 of Timmy B's Top 15. Brando does not have Alabama in his Top 15.
Following college football Week 3 results, ESPN Analytics has updated win probabilities for all teams. With one exception Alabama Crimson Tide fans will love the new ESPN computer calculations.
Alabama's blowout of Wisconsin and Georgia's squeaker win over Kentucky pushed Alabama's win probability over Georgia from 52.6% to 67%. According to the ESPN algorithm, Georgia is no longer the favorite in three games; at Alabama, at Texas, and at Ole Miss.
Alabama Football Latest ESPN Win Probability
- Alabama vs. Georgia - Sept. 28 - 67% probability of a Crimson Tide win
- Alabama at Vanderbilt - Oct. 5 - 93.4% Alabama win, up from 90%
- Alabama vs. South Carolina- Oct. 12 - 94.1% Alabama win, up from 91.5%
- Alabama at Tennessee - Oct. 19 - 54.8% Alabama win, down from 56%
- Alabama vs. Missouri - Oct. 26 - 81.1% Alabama win, up from 78.5%
- Alabama at LSU - Nov. 9 - 85.3% Alabama win, up from 82.3%. This one must really stick in Timmy B's craw.
- Alabama vs. Mercer - Nov. 16 - No change with a 99% Crimson Tide win probability
- Alabama at Oklahoma - Nov. 23 - 77.4% Alabama win, up from 74.6%
- Alabama vs. Auburn - Nov. 30 - 91.6% Alabama win, up from 89.3%. I guess ESPN's model has not adjusted to Auburn's new QB starter being a Heisman contender (according to the Aubies).
As discussed in a Sunday morning Bama Hammer post, ESPN now has Texas and Alabama as the clear favorites to win the SEC Championship Game.
In other rankings, Auburn failed to get any votes in the latest AP and Coaches Polls. There was a wild rumor a protest against the Polls would be staged this week at Toomer's Corner. Conversations about a protest may have fizzled when the Aubies were reminded the ESPN FPI still values the Tigers at No. 26, making Auburn the SEC's 10th-best team.