Evaluating ESPN's win probabilities for every Alabama Crimson Tide game

Are the win percentages, calculated by ESPN for every Alabama Crimson Tide game, more than interesting? Are they good predictions of Alabama Football's 12, regular season outcomes? Even if all the details for ESPN's algorithm are verifiably sound, they only present a preseason snapshot. Teams will develop during the season with a wide range of progress. Some will even regress during the season. So, when an Alabama fan or Oklahoma fan sees ESPN basically calling their Nov. 23 game a tossup, there is no reason to fret.

The Alabama Crimson Tide, more so than most other teams because of the coaching transition, is hard to predict. I contend that in the second half of the regular season, Alabama Football will be quite different from what it was early. 'Quite different' as in much improved.

I am willing to look at ESPN's win probabilities for the entire season and conclude the Alabama Crimson Tide has seven locked-in or nearly, locked-in wins.

Alabama Crimson Tide High Probability Wins per ESPN

• Nov. 16 - Mercer Bears - Alabama Win 99% (the correct number should be 100%)

• Aug. 31 - Western Kentucky Hilltoppers - Alabama Win 97.4%

• Sept. 7 - South Florida Bulls - Alabama Win 96.2%

• Oct. 5 - Vanderbilt Commodores - Alabama Win 89.8%

• Oct. 12 - South Carolina Gamecocks - Alabama Win 86.2%

• Sept. 7 - Wisconsin Badgers - Alabama Win 81.3%

• Nov. 30 - Auburn Tigers - Alabama Win 80.1%

The ESPN FPI gives the Crimson Tide a 97.2% projection for winning six, regular season games.

Calculated by ESPN, the Crimson Tide's five most difficult games are listed below, from least difficult to most difficult.

• Oct. 25 - Missouri Tigers - Alabama Win 70%

• Nov. 9 - LSU Bengal Tigers - Alabama Win 63.3%

• Oct. 19 - Tennessee Vols - Alabama Win 58%

• Nov. 23 - Oklahoma Sooners - Alabama Win 51.2%

• Sept. 28 - Georgia Bulldogs - Alabama Win 40.9%

Most noteworthy is the ESPN projection gives Alabama a higher probability of winning in Baton Rouge, than in Knoxville or Norman. I'm pretty sure ESPN's algorithm does not calculate Alabama's amazing history of success in Tiger Stadium. Current odds on the game have the Crimson a 1.5-point favorite, suggesting less than a 63.3% win probability.

Norman is a tough place to play, but not as tough as Baton Rouge, so will Oklahoma in November be a much tougher challenge for Alabama Football than LSU?

ESPN projects the Crimson Tide at 9-3 for the regular season. Given the coaching transition, 9-3 is possible, but Alabama fans have good reasons to think 10 or 11 wins are just as likely.