Four games will define Alabama Crimson Tide 2024 regular season

Doubting the Alabama Crimson Tide will be college football's most popular topic throughout the offseason. Ultimately four games will define Alabama's 2024 regular season.
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Predicting the outcome of any team's 2024 season is a fanciful exercise for both college football fans and experts. Beyond the entertainment value of predicting a season of outcomes, is there some useful information provided by oddsmakers? Yes and no are correct answers.

According to FanDuel, the win total for the Alabama Crimson Tide in the 2024 regular season is 9.5 wins. Crimson Tide detractors will define the 9.5, over or under wins as a 9-3 season. It is easy to find three potential losses in the Alabama schedule. It is also possible for Alabama to win each of those three games.

Looking deeper into 'Vegas Odds' provides necessary context. Based on considerable research, it is known teams favored by 3.5 points in a game, win 59.8% of the time. Such winning probability is not far from qualifying as a toss-up game.

An optimistic Alabama Crimson Tide fan will interpret the Georgia Bulldogs, currently favored by 3.5 points against Alabama in Tuscaloosa, as a toss-up game. If the Crimson Tide can beat the Bulldogs, it can also win a road game against LSU, in which the Bengal Tigers are currently favored by 2.5 points (a 57% chance of winning).

In this new era of Alabama Football, Crimson Tide fans are trying to determine which side of 9.5 wins is most likely. My take is 10-2 is more likely than 8-4. With the Crimson Tide having one of the top two or three most talented rosters in 2024, even an 11-1 season is plausible.

Four games will define 2024 Alabama Crimson Tide

It is expected Alabama will be favored in at least eight regular season games. They are home games against Western Kentucky, South Florida, South Carolina, Missouri, Mercer, and Auburn, plus road contests against Wisconsin and Vanderbilt. The Missouri game might be a stern challenge, but I count all eight games as Alabama wins.

The four remaining games are Georgia in Tuscaloosa, plus Tennessee, LSU, and Oklahoma on the road. The Sooners will likely be underdogs but winning in Knoxville and Baton Rouge will not come easy.

Looking through crimson-tinted glasses, my take is the Crimson Tide will win at least two of the tough four and finish the regular season at no worse than 10-2.

Check out a win totals prediction for all 16 SEC teams in the tweet below.

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