College sports, especially college football continue to rapidly change. Nick Saban has long shared words of caution about the direction in which the college game was headed. A big recent surprise was Jimbo Fisher talking sense in much the same way as Saban.
Fisher described the growing revenue gap between the SEC, Big Ten, and the ACC and Big 12 is creating a separation in which lesser programs cannot compete. He included 'mid-major' college football programs from Group of Five conferences, "all of your mid-majors and some of your ACC, Big 12 and old Pac-12 are becoming glorified junior colleges."
Iowa State AD, Jamie Pollard made a similar claim about what will happen to lower-tier SEC and Big Ten programs, "... if I was a member of the Big Ten or the SEC, I’d start looking over my shoulder and wondering if, when is the day going to come when the top of the SEC is not going to want the bottom of the SEC."
It is easy to predict purges by the Power Two. What will happen in the next few years may be quite different. It is possible, if or when two or three or more ACC teams successfully bolt for the SEC or Big Ten, that what is left might look attractive to a Vanderbilt or Northwestern. Maybe seeking a greater opportunity for competitive success overrides chasing the most dollars.
Whatever happens, college sports will do more than survive. It will continue to prosper. Games from the major sports are too valuable as entertainment products. Interest will not wane, no matter the structure of the organizations.
It appears the NCAA is finally making a meaningful contribution to college sports. The three main anti-trust cases are expected to be settled soon. A heavy price will be paid; $2.8B over a 10-year period, but losing the cases would cost much more.
There will still be complications. Recently Nick Saban expressed support for the anti-trust settlements. He also shared a concern that the settlements will not resolve. "The second thing is to try to create a system that continues to allow all people who have had the opportunity to participate in college athletics — that’s male and female and Title IX. I’m all for the players sharing the wealth of what’s happening in college football, but it has to be a system that’s going to keep everybody having an opportunity, revenue sports as well as non-revenue sports.”
As he has so many times in the past, Nick Saban is not wrong.