Not much fun to be had in the lower football tiers of the 'New-SEC'

SEC Football now officially has 16 teams. Speculation continues that Greg Sankey has the support of most SEC schools to grow the league to at least 18 teams. The growth offers rewards, though except for the distribution of increased revenues, those rewards will not be shared equally.

The SEC may evolve into a split of 'have' and 'have not' football programs. For the fans of the have-nots, SEC football will not be much fun. Who are the 2024 have-nots? And, is it possible there will be little or no mobility up from the bottom tier of the SEC?

Recently, Greg McElroy offered his thoughts on 2024 SEC football Tiers. Alabama Crimson Tide fans will enjoy that the former Alabama quarterback placed the Tide in the top tier; with Georgia and Texas. Tier Two for McElroy is Tennessee, Ole Miss. LSU, Missouri, and Oklahoma. In Tier Three, GMac has Texas A&M, Auburn, Kentucky, and Florida. The bottom rung of Tier Four is Mississippi State, Arkansas, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt.

ESPN's FPI rates six 2024 SEC football teams as having a 61.4% chance, or lower, to win six games. They are Kentucky at 61.4%, South Carolina at 61.2%, Florida at 58.2%, Arkansas at 48.4%, Mississippi State at 40% and Vanderbilt at 17.8%.

Writing for CBS Sports, Will Backus uses established Over/Unders to project the 2024 SEC football season. His projection for South Carolina at 5.5 wins is to take the Under. Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Florida are at 4.5 wins, and for each of the three teams, Backus recommends taking the Unders. Vanderbilt in its perennial SEC cellar status is given an O/U of 2.5 wins and Backus says the Under is the play.

SEC Football 'Have Nots'

There is no logical reason to believe that the Commodores are not stuck in the SEC mud forever. Could the same situation quickly evolve for more SEC football programs? Mississippi State and Arkansas might not be far off from the point where coaching transitions don't provide enough boost to alter annual results.

The financial rewards for SEC football programs have grown significantly. The cost of fielding competitive teams has grown even more. Escaping from being an SEC 'Have Not' has become harder and there are no signs that will change.