One of 10 teams having a chance to win the National Championship is Alabama Football

The Playoffs will include 12 teams, but Alabama Football is one of no more than 8-10 teams with a chance to win it all.
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More than a decade ago, Bud Elliott coined the Blue-Chip Ratio as a prediction tool (BCR) for which college football teams would be successful. A simple calculation determines the returning roster percentage of each team's former 4-star and 5-star recruits. The BCR has proven to be a valuable indicator of the teams with legitimate chances to contend for a National Championship.

As Elliott describes, the BCR is "an excellent method for identifying the top 10% of teams that realistically have a shot at winning the title." Alabama football fans have good reason to closely follow the BCR. In the Alabama Crimson Tide's National Championship seasons going back to 2011, Alabama has had a BCR of 71% or higher. The specific numbers were 71% in 2011 and 2012; 77% in 2015; 80% in 2017, and a whopping 83% in 2020.

The BCR is no guarantee of winning a National Championship. Alabama's 2023 BCR was 90%. In 2022 it was 89%. In the 2021 season, Alabama had a BCR of 84%, but it was Georgia, at 80% that beat the Crimson Tide for the National Championship.

There have also been BCR outliers. Michigan won it all last season with a BCR of 54%. In 2026, Clemson's BCR was 52%, and in 2013, Florida State's BCR was 53%.

But going back to the 2011 season, the other 10 ten teams to win the National Championship had BCRs ranging from 64% to 83%. The average was 73.9%.

What conclusions can Alabama football fans draw?

Ignoring the three outlier champions in 2013, 2016, and 2023, the other 10 championship teams indicate a threshold of 64% BCR. Elliott contends the BCR identifies the 10% of teams with a chance to win a national championship. Using his BCR history, 10% is too high. College football has 134 FBS teams in the 2024 season. At 10% that means there are 14 (13.4) actual contenders. The realistic number is closer to eight. If the 64% threshold number suggested above is accurate, there are no more than 10 teams with a chance to win it all.

Ten Highest 2024 BCRs

  • Ohio State Buckeyes - 90%
  • Alabama Crimson Tide - 88%
  • Georgia Bulldogs - 80%
  • Texas A&M Aggies - 79%
  • Oregon Ducks - 76%
  • Oklahoma Sooners - 73%
  • Texas Longhorns - 72%
  • LSU Bengal Tigers - 70%
  • Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 67%
  • Clemson Tigers - 64%

This offseason, for the first time, the BCR percentages were adjusted to include transfer exits and additions. Ohio State and Alabama Football remained at No. 1 and No. 2 with 86% and 82 % respectively. All the 10 teams dropped except Clemson, which remained at 64%. Georgia dropped to 77%: Oregon to 71%; Texas to 70%; and LSU to 66%. Texas A&M dropped 16 points to 63% and Oklahoma dropped 10 points to 63%.

Elliott added that the percentages adjusted for transfers will need a few more seasons of data before considering them as reliable as the standard BCR.

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