Predicting the Preseason AP Poll and where Alabama Football will land

In a couple of weeks, the AP Preseason Poll will be released. The exact date is Aug. 12. The rest of the college football world hates to be reminded that no program does the AP Poll better than Alabama Football. Active weekly Top 25 appearance streaks are tracked back to the 2008 Alabama Crimson Tide; currently at 261 appearances. Well behind Alabama is Georgia at 114 appearances, and Ohio State at 62 appearances.

We can debate how much the AP Poll (and the Coaches Poll) still matter in a 12-team CFB Playoff world. At the least, until Halloween, the AP and Coaches Polls matter considerably. On Oct. 31, the CFB Playoff Selection Committee will release its first rankings for the 2024 season.

Can the AP Preseason Poll be considered an accurate indicator of final CFB Top 25 rankings? A year ago, Andy Wittrey, writing for ncaa.com published data to provide an answer. According to Wittrey's data the Preseason AP No. 1, has averaged a final Playoff ranking of No. 3. With one exception, Preseason AP No. 2 through No. 7 have averaged Playoff rankings close to making a 12-team Playoff field.

AP Preseason Poll vs. Final CFB Playoff Rankings

• AP Preseason No. 1 - Average Playoff ranking of No. 3

• AP No. 2 - Average Playoff ranking of No. 6.3

• AP Poll No. 3 - Average Playoff ranking of No. 8

• AP Poll No. 4 - Average Playoff ranking of No. 13.6

• AP Poll No. 5 - Average Playoff ranking of No. 7.3

• AP Poll No. 6 - Average Playoff ranking of No. 17.3

• AP Poll No. 7 - Average Playoff ranking of No. 13.6

• AP Poll No. 8 - Average Playoff ranking of No. 12.7

The small sample can explain the outliers for AP Preseason Poll No. 4 and No. 6.

For AP Preseason rankings of No. 15 and higher, the average Playoff rankings range from No. 20.6 to No. 29.5. A general conclusion can be reached that on Aug. 12, teams at No. 15 and below have little chance to make the Playoff field.

Where will Alabama Football be ranked on Aug. 12?

Phil Steele has a solid track record predicting AP Polls. His recent prediction is Alabama will be No. 5, below Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, and Texas. Steele predicts two more SEC teams will make the AP Preseason Top 10; Ole Miss at No. 9 and Missouri at No. 10. Based on the data above, those rankings suggest five SEC teams tracking toward Playoff slots.

Steele included 10 SEC football teams a month ago in his annual preseason Top 40. The three SEC teams in Steele's Top 10 were Georgia at No. 1, Texas at No. 4, and Alabama at No. 7.