Reasons why the Alabama Crimson Tide will beat UConn

The Alabama Crimson Tide is a double-digit underdog against the defending National Champion UConn Huskies. Among the Final Four teams, Alabama is not the longest longshot to win the NCAA Tournament. That honor belongs to North Carolina State. But outside of each team's fans, almost no one is picking Alabama and NCSU to advance to the national title game.

Based on ESPN Analytics, the Crimson Tide has a 28% probability of beating the Huskies. Even for a staunch Alabama fan, there is no basis in data to suggest the Tide has better than a 28% chance. To win the Crimson Tide will likely need its best game and the Huskies will have to play less than their best.

There are reasons why Alabama can pull off an upset. An upset argument is not as strong asreasons why UConn will prove the oddsmakers correct, but an upset claim is credible.

Seven reasons the Alabama Crimson Tide will beat UConn

• Reason No. 1 - UConn is an outstanding team on a 10-game NCAA Tournament winning streak. For the last year and a couple of weeks, the Huskies are 41-3. But UConn is not invincible. Seton Hall beat them by 15 points in December and Creighton won 85-66 against the Huskies in late February. For the record, UConn Center, Donovan Clingan missed the last 16 minutes of the Seton Hall game with an injury.