It hasn't been a banner year for SEC Football programs so far in 2024's non-conference slate. Georgia, Texas, and yes, even Vanderbilt have done the heavy lifting so far netting wins over the likes of Clemson, Michigan, and Virginia Tech. But other SEC programs have fallen flat.
Week 1 saw Texas A&M lose at home to a Notre Dame team that followed up that win by losing to Northern Illinois at home, Florida get trounced by Miami at the Swamp in what was a pivotal game for Billy Napier, and LSU lose a season opener for the fifth straight year, this time to USC in Las Vegas.
Week 2 saw Arkansas blow a big lead in an overtime loss at Oklahoma State, Auburn lose as two-touchdown home favorites to Cal, and Mississippi State come up short in Tempe against Arizona State.
Several SEC teams enter week 3 really needing a win to right the ship and show their fanbase that there are better things to come in 2024 and beyond. But a loss this week could do the opposite, and signal that the program is in for a long year and might need to make changes heading into 2025.
LSU Tigers
Following the loss to USC, LSU came out and played pretty uninspiring football last week in defeating FCS Nicholls State 44-21. After what looked to be an improved defense against the Trojans, that good will was quickly lost in Week 2 as the Tigers struggled to stop the Colonels' ground attack, allowing 150 rushing yards to an overmatched opponent.
Brian Kelly has gotten a lot of equity - more than he deserves - over the one-point overtime victory over Alabama in his debut season in Baton Rouge. I've long wondered how much heat he would be feeling if that game had gone the other way. He's won 10-games in both years, but Kelly wasn't brought to LSU just to win 10 games. He was brought to topple Alabama and win SEC and National Championships. He couldn't make the four-team playoff in his first two years, and early 2024 returns don't look great for the Tigers to get in the inaugural 12-teamer.
Hopes of making the playoff will be up in flames if LSU can't pull out a win in Columbia against South Carolina with College Gameday in town. The Gamecocks had a struggle win to open the season against Old Dominion, but bounced back by dismantling Kentucky 31-6 in Lexington.
LSU is dealing with injuries all over the place. They just lost their starting defensive tackle for the season with an injury, which is bad news for a defense that needs all the help it can get. The Tigers have been inaffective on offense running the football, so they'll need Garrett Nussmeier to lead the way on the road.
The Tigers should beat the Gamecocks, but if they don't, the pressure will be mounting on Kelly.
The loser of Texas A&M at Florida
When the dust settles at the Swamp, one team will be feeling better about its circumstances with its second straight win, while the other fanbase will be hitting the panic button and daydreaming about 2025.
The pressure isn't quite as heavy on Texas A&M as Mike Elko is just in his first season as the head man in College Station, but starting 1-2 is not the best way to endear himself to the Aggie faithful. A&M has a favorable schedule moving forward, so if it can escape Gainesville with a win on Saturday, playoff hopes are very much alive.
The Aggies have three ranked opponents left on the schedule, and all three come to Kyle Field.
The news won't be nearly as good for Florida or Billy Napier if the Gators drop a second home game in September. Napier occupies maybe the hottest seat in America, and it will take a strong final 10 games for him to return as the head coach in 2025.
There is hope for the Gators in freshman quarterback DJ Lagway, who was super impressive in his first start last week. Even when Graham Mertz is fully healthy, don't expect Napier to switch back to the senior as Lagway gives the Gators the best chance of winning moving forward.
This is a must win for Florida if they want any hope of even making it to a bowl game. The Gators have one of the toughest schedules in the country remaining, and have zero margin for error after losing the opener to Miami.