The Alabama Crimson Tide remains near the top in updated ESPN FPI rankings
By Ronald Evans
The biggest upset of college football's Week 6 was Vanderbilt taking down the Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama Football was not the only highly-ranked team to lose. Arkansas knocked Tennessee from the dwindling list of unbeaten teams. The Hogs clamped down on the Vols' offense and won 19-14. USC, Michigan, and Missouri also lost.
ESPN's computer model did not significantly downgrade the Crimson Tide. Alabama slipped only one spot to No. 3 according to the ESPN FPI rankings. Vanderbilt's shocking upset boosted the Commodores way up the FPI rankings. Vandy moved up 16 spots to No. 41.
What changed considerably were Alabama's Playoff chances. Before losing to Vandy, ESPN gave the Crimson Tide a 91.6% probability of making the Playoff field. After the upset, the number dropped to 70%. The FPI now gives four teams, Georgia, Miami, Texas, and Ohio State, higher probabilities to make the CFB Playoffs.
Alabama's probability of winning the SEC Championship Game dropped from 30.7% to 16%. Even after the slide, only Texas, at 45.2%, has a higher probability to win the SEC, than Alabama.
The updated FPI has six SEC teams with 33.2% or greater probabilities to make the Playoffs. New to that top group of SEC teams are the Texas A&M Aggies, at 33.2%. After beating Missouri, the Aggies moved up six spots in the FPI to No. 12. The loss to Texas A&M bounced Missouri down eight spots in the FPI to No. 22.
Alabama Crimson Tide and other SEC Playoff contenders
- Texas Longhorns (5-0) - FPI Rank No. 1, with 90.9% probability of making the Playoffs
- Alabama Crimson Tide (4-1) - FPI Rank No. 3; 70% Playoff probability
- Georgia Bulldogs (4-1) - FPI Rank No. 4; 70.5% Playoff probability
- Ole Miss Rebels (5-1) - FPI Rank No. 5; 55.8% Playoff probability
- Tennessee Vols (4-1) - FPI Rank No. 6; 47.7% Playoff probability
- Texas A&M Aggies (5-1) - FPI Rank No. 12; 33.2% Playoff probability
- LSU Bengal Tigers (4-1) - FPI Rank No. 15; 13.7% Playoff probability
- Oklahoma Sooners (4-1) - FPI Rank No. 17; 13.4% Playoff probability
- Missouri Tigers (4-1) - FPI Rank No. 22; 10.1% Playoff probability
Other SEC teams and their FPI ranking are: Arkansas (No. 24); Kentucky (No. 25); Auburn (No. 34); South Carolina (No. 35); Florida (No. 36); Vanderbilt (No. 41) and Mississippi State (No. 68),
As a predictive rankings model, ESPN's FPI needs a couple of more weeks of game data to provide solid information. Even so, Alabama's slight dip to No. 3 in encouraging to Crimson Tide fans still reeling from the loss to Vanderbilt.