The three games a 10-2 Alabama Crimson Tide must win

In June, 247Sports projected the Alabama Crimson Tide and four other SEC football teams would finish the regular season at 10-2. In addition, Texas was projected to finish 11-1. Such results would most likely mean one 10-2, SEC teams would miss out on the Playoffs.

Due to the Crimson Tide's tough schedule, it seemed the projection should not mean Alabama would be the 10-2 team left out. There was also the small chance the SEC's deep well of top teams would lead to the CFB Playoff Selection Committee selecting six SEC teams.

Has the SEC's Playoff potential changed since June? In the preseason AP Poll, eight SEC teams are ranked in the top 16, with another ranked at No. 20. Is that an indication the Selection Committee might shock and anger the college football world by choosing six (or seven) SEC teams? The history of 4-team Playoff selections suggests the last thing former Selection Committees have wanted is to shock.

A shock that may result nonetheless would be for multiple 10-2 SEC teams to not make the Playoffs. USA Today's Blake Toppmeyer calculates that nine SEC teams could finish the regular season at 10-2. Could is a long way from should, but even if the reality is seven, that would probably mean two 10-2, SEC teams would be deemed to have non-Playoff, failed 2024 seasons.

What about the Alabama Crimson Tide?

The range of predictions for the Crimson Tide is nine to 11 wins, making a 10-2 regular season the most plausible result. Alabama football fans are right to believe the Crimson Tide can beat Georgia in September. That doesn't change the game being Alabama's most likely loss.

If Georgia wins, to finish the regular season at no worse than 10-2, Alabama will have to win three of four key games. The four opponents are currently projected by the ESPN FPI to have a 25% chance or greater to make the Playoffs. On that basis, Alabama must beat three of Tennessee, Missouri, LSU and Oklahoma. Winning the three games, plus the Crimson Tide's SOS should mean Alabama will not be a 'failed' 10-2 team.