Thoughts on Top 15 college football programs for the next three seasons

Josh Pate is widely respected as a college football expert. His valuable insight sparks conversations, but unlike many others, Pate provides substance to go along with sizzle.

For SEC football fans and particularly Alabama football fans, Pate's recent projection of the Top 15 college football programs for the next three seasons gains concurrence. It is significant Pate's 15 programs included seven from the SEC and only four from the larger group of teams in the Big Ten. The floundering ACC rated almost as well as the B1G with three programs selected.

Fans of the Big 12 can bemoan being left out of Pate's list. No amount of outlandish spin from Big 12 Commissioner, Brett Yormark can change the fact that college football is dominated by the Power Two.

Pate's full explanation of how he selected the 15 programs can be seen in the video below. A summary is Pate defined programs based on a "rolling multi-year blend" of on-field record, talent acquisition through recruiting and the Portal, player development, and resources.

Josh Pate - College Football Top 15

• 1) Georgia Bulldogs, 2) Alabama Crimson Tide, 3) Ohio State Buckeyes, 4) Oregon Ducks, 5) Texas Longhorns, 6) Florida State Seminoles, 7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 8) Oklahoma Sooners, 9) Michigan Wolverines, 10) Texas A&M Aggies, 11) LSU Bengal Tigers, 12) Tennessee Vols, 13) Miami Hurricanes, 14) Clemson Tigers, 15) Penn State Nittany Lions

Consideration where Pate might be wrong can focus on the bottom of the list, with Miami, Clemson, and Penn State. Mario Cristobal's 12-13 two-season record with the Canes does not indicate an upward trajectory. Miami is projected to make a big jump in 2024, but if not a Playoff team, Pate may be wrong. The Clemson situation is also a bit iffy. Dabo is going to do it his way, no matter how few college football experts agree. That way may not work anymore. Penn State will have another good team. Can the Nittany Lions make the Playoffs? James Franklin's track record in big games injects doubt.

What about the eight SEC football programs not on Pate's top 15 list? If any of Miami, Clemson, or Penn State falter, what SEC program might become a replacement? The two most likely maybes are Ole Miss and Missouri. Each one would have to make the first 12-team CFB Playoff field. In this particular conversation, the other seven SEC football programs don't deserve a mention.