Three reasons why Alabama Football will be 11-1 in the 2024 regular season

Go outside the universe of Alabama football fans and 2024 regular season predictions have the Crimson Tide losing two, three, maybe even four games. Provided by 247Sports, FanDuel has Alabama Football at a 9.5 win total. Only four teams are projected higher at 10.5 wins; Texas, Oregon Georgia, and Ohio State. A Crimson Tide counter-opinion can be based on three credible reasons why a better prediction is 11-1.

The one Alabama loss in an 11-1 prediction must be against the Georgia Bulldogs. The Dawgs should be 'elite-good' in 2024, with a real chance to win a National Championship. If the game was scheduled for November, rather than September, I could feel good about a Crimson Tide upset. But expecting the 2024 Alabama Crimson Tide to be at Georgia's level quickly is a mistake. Using a phrase favored by Nick Saban, the 2024 Crimson Tide will have growing pains as a 'work in progress' in the first half of the season.

Three Reasons for an 11-1 Alabama Football Regular Season

Last season at Washington, Kalen DeBoer engineered college football's most explosive passing offense. Not even Jayden Daniels and LSU were as explosive. Washington was only average (No. 65 in the FBS) in average rushing yards per carry of 4.32 yards. With an Alabama roster having the personnel to be equally effective on the ground and through the air, the 2024 Crimson Tide can have college football's most explosive passing and rushing offense.

Last season five teams averaged more than 40 points per game. At 36 points per game, Washington was not one of them. With DeBoer's offensive system, the Crimson Tide can average 40-plus in 2024. With that kind of offensive productivity, few opponents will have enough offense to beat the Crimson Tide.

Preseason predictions have Ole Miss and Texas as the SEC's most explosive offenses next season. Alabama plays neither team in the regular season. The next three in SEC offensive predictions are Georgia, Oklahoma, and LSU. A not quite ready for Prime Time, Crimson Tide may not have enough against Georgia. The situation will be different for the Oklahoma and LSU games.

Likely by mid-October and almost certainly by November, the new Alabama Crimson Tide defense will have come together. Attrition required a rebuild of the Tide secondary. It will not lack talent. It will be vulnerable until the group has enough game experience, together to function without grievous breakdowns. The Sooners and the Bengal Tigers may have potent offenses, but in November, Alabama can and should have one of the SEC's best defenses, with a secondary that is a strength rather than a weakness.

These are the ingredients for an 11-1 regular season; a DeBoer offense as or more potent than Washington last year; favorable timing of games against top SEC offenses; and a rebuilt secondary, not short on talent, needing (and getting) time to gel.