It is too soon for Auburn. It is also too soon for this discussion on how Auburn should be evaluating 'soon'. I'm diving into this subject now, because Birmingham News writer, Kevin Scarbinsky brought it up on Monday. Scarbinsky alienated many Alabama Crimson Tide fans years ago. No matter how much the ire was earned, in my opinion, Scarbinsky got a clean slate when he used reason to defend Brandon Miller. Scarbinsky was one of the few to do so. Many others, including writers at AL.com, chased clicks with sleazy reporting.
After Monday's opinion column, the center of any animosity to Scarbinsky must be in Auburn. Prompted by Auburn's embarrassing loss to Cal, Scarbinsky talked about Hugh Freeze, Auburn, and doubt. The opening sentence in his column was "How soon is too soon to realize that you made a mistake?" It is a correct question.
Paying attention to the wrong Hugh Freeze facts
Auburn's football future is hinged on what Auburn leadership believes are two important facts. Fact one is twice a Hugh Freeze-coached Ole Miss team beat Nick Saban. Fact two is Freeze is recognized as a top recruiter. There's another fact that Auburn is trying hard to ignore. In Auburn's last seven home games, Auburn's record is 2-5. In the same period, Auburn lost a bowl game to Maryland, after which Freeze said he had been too busy recruiting to gameplan for the Terrapins.
Kevin Scarbinsky admits it is too soon for Auburn to consider replacing Hugh Freeze. He also hints that too soon could evaporate rapidly. Commenting on Hugh Freeze's coaching performance, Scarbinsky wrote, "Freeze appears to have lost whatever touch he once possessed in terms of identifying and coaching up a quarterback, constructing an effective game plan and dialing up the right plays at the right time on Saturdays. Despite an off-season of sunshine pumping by the head coach, Payton Thorne - in his sixth year of college football and his fourth season as a Power 4 starter - looks like he may be the worst quarterback in the SEC again."
A few months ago, Freeze excused not bringing in a transfer quarterback as not, just throwing a million dollars at a possibly one season band-aid. Some questioned if it was that Auburn was hard up for money. That seems unlikely, the Tigers appear to have plenty of NIL funds.
What Auburn also has are unpaid bills to Gus Malzahn and Bryan Harsin. Those two buyouts required quick cash buyouts of as much as 50% of the remaining contract totals. Even so, in the spring of 2023, it was reported the buyouts were around $37M. The Freeze buyout is reported to be 75% of what is left on his contract at the time of termination. A rough calculation is the Freeze buyout total is currently around $28M. Having learned from the big immediate payouts to Malzahn and Harsin, reportedly Freeze's buyout is structured for monthly payments.
There is never a bad time for an Alabama fan to point out problems at Auburn. Auburn cannot overreact, because for news to leak of dissatisfaction with Freeze, the 2025 signing class could be adversely affected. But there is another side to Auburn's dilemma. It is the revolving door of the Transfer Portal. It swings open at will no matter the mandated schedule. If the Tigers were to limp to a 7-win season in 2024, the odds are high some top players from the 2024 class will choose to bolt.
Auburn faithful still cling to the fiction the Tigers will win eight or nine games. Surely New Mexico will be defeated and the Tigers will move to 2-1. What follows are four games in five weeks and Auburn could lose all of them. Even if Auburn loses just three of those games, the Tigers will be 3-4, with November games against Texas A&M and Alabama.
Trying to get a handle on when is 'too soon' for Auburn, Scarbinsky cited a statement made by a former SEC AD, Jeremy Foley. Foley retired from Florida in 2016. When he was active, Foley used some business acumen as advice for managing college sports programs, "What must be done eventually should be done immediately." Is anyone with power at Auburn paying attention to that sound advice?