Week 5 12-team College Football Playoff prediction: Alabama Football surges to top spot

Alabama’s win over Georgia in Bryant-Denny Stadium dominated the headlines coming out of week five. On paper, this game was the best matchup of the regular season and it certainly lived up to the hype. 

With the 41-34 win that wasn't quite that close, Alabama re-asserted SEC dominance, knocked the Bulldogs down a peg, and took the top spot in the AP poll for the first time this season. 

The Crimson Tide also took over the top spot in my week five College Football Playoff prediction:

This change wasn’t as simple as “Alabama beat Georgia, therefore the Tide jumps the Dawgs.” In fact, my original playoff prediction, which had Georgia as the SEC champion and Alabama in the first at-large slot, included the assumption that Bama would beat Georgia in Bryant-Denny. I figured that a Kirby Smart-coached Georgia team would be tough to beat twice and would finally get over the hump in Atlanta against the Crimson Tide. 

However, the way the Tide dominated most of that game gave me confidence that they are the better team. There is more separation between the two than I originally thought, and I would now predict Alabama to win a neutral site rematch. 

Alabama showed its immense offensive potential in the first half against Georgia, and it’s hard to believe this offense is anywhere close to fully integrated four games into the season. Bama is right in the mix with the best teams in the country, along with Texas, Ohio State, and still Georgia. With a new coaching staff and several young players in the rotation, I believe Alabama has the most room for upward mobility among this group. 

Other updates from around the nation

Miami remains a top-4 team after surviving a controversial finish against Virginia Tech on Friday night. I still have the ACC as a one-bid league, but Clemson looks better and better every week and is still firmly in the playoff picture.

Utah took a loss against Arizona, but everyone in the Big 12 will likely take a loss eventually. Though it may be foolish, I continue to believe that Cam Rising will eventually return and Utah will win the league. 

The SEC and Big Ten continue to dominate these rankings with Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Michigan, Oregon, and Penn State all taking up at-large spots. Though I’m not a believer in Notre Dame, the Irish play a relatively weak schedule and are back in the field after Ole Miss fell to Kentucky at home. USC is still very much a playoff candidate as well. When the Irish and the Trojans square off on Thanksgiving weekend, it could be an at-large play-in game. 

Led by Heisman-contending running back Ashton Jeanty, Boise State remains intact as my highest-ranked Group of Five champion.

In the SEC, Missouri is still quietly undefeated, while one-loss teams like Ole Miss, LSU, and Oklahoma will have chances to make a push. The Big 12 is still wide open and has nine teams with one loss or less. BYU and Iowa State are undefeated while Kansas State sits at 4-1, and all three are dark horse Big 12 contenders.

As conference play continues across the country, the playoff picture will begin to clear up a little bit more with each passing week.