What Florida State's loss means for SEC football teams
By Ronald Evans
Should the college football world be shocked when a team that lost a bowl game by 60 points is upset in week zero? Mostly the answer is yes. Florida State was considered by almost everyone as a legit CFB Playoff contender. Maybe when applied to Nick Saban's response to the upset, the answer is no. Saban predicted FSU would win the ACC, but he also stated Georgia Tech would be an improved team, with an offense that would challenge many teams. Saban called the Yellowjackets an ACC sleeper team.
Six FBS teams played games in Week 0 and for three of them the results were disappointing; FSU, New Mexico, and SMU (although SMU won). The results were quickly followed by an avalanche of 'rush-to-judgment' opinions. Let's not be so hasty. Speculation is fun but after one baby week of college football; nothing is known.
According to ESPN's FPI, FSU plummetted in CFB Playoff contention, down to a 12.3% chance. Twenty-eight teams are projected to have a higher probability. For perspective, even the Auburn Tigers, at 12.8% have a higher probability of making the 12-team Playoff field.
Clemson is now the favorite to win the ACC. Lagging behind Dabo's team but ahead of FSU are Louisville, Miami, SMU, and North Carolina State.
SEC Football Teams and Playoff Chances
According to ESPN, nine SEC football teams have a 21% (Ole Miss) to 79.2% (Georgia) probability of making the Playoffs. The second-highest probability among ACC teams is Louisville at 19.5%. Jumping to a too-early conclusion, it could be that Georgia Tech's upset of FSU greatly increases the SEC's chances for five Playoff teams. Such a result would probably require one Power Four conference to get only one Playoff team. Going into Week One, the ACC looks to be at the greatest risk.
ESPN's analytics requires at least several weeks of games before the numbers carry much validity. But the current numbers are the SEC's best chances of five Playoff teams rest with Georgia, Texas (68.3%), Alabama (56%), Missouri (37.6%), Tennessee (37.4%), and Oklahoma 36.5%). Trailing that group are LSU (25.5%, Texas A&M (21.7), and Ole Miss (21%).
Alabama football fans and others will find Nick Saban's next Playoff prediction very interesting.